Tuesday, November 1, 2016

State of the Race: 7 Days To Go

Photo courtesy HFA
One week to go! In just seven days, we'll know who the next president will be.

A lot of factors are suddenly making Democrats jittery in the final days, and some of it might be understandable. We've got one widely-publicized national tracking poll that has swung 13 points in 8 days. The sudden James Comey insanity. Wikileaks. Obamacare premium increases. And maybe just general anxiety that America's future depends on a choice that will be made in just a few days.

In the face of all this, the most important message of all right now is VOTE. If you haven't voted or mailed in your ballot yet, do it today. If you've already voted, talk to every one of your Hillary-supporting friends and family and tell them to do the same. And go to HillaryClinton.com to make calls or volunteer to get out the vote!

Okay, got it? Good. Now let's have one more edition of "Keep Calm and Hillary On".

Here's the national head-to-head Clinton vs Trump chart since September 1st:

Via Huffington Post
It looks like Hillary surged following the first debate and it's been a pretty stable race ever since. If anything, Trump seems to have won back some of his base over the past couple of weeks while Clinton hasn't budged.

But the national vote doesn't elect the president, so let's turn to the states.

If the blue wall holds (plus New Mexico), Hillary only needs to win these three states in order to prevail: New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.

In New Hampshire, Clinton has been leading in every reputable poll for as long as I can remember and is currently ahead by six points. It would be a major shocker if Trump wins here, and it's really hard to see it happening.

In Colorado, Clinton leads by an average of five points and early voting is well underway with Democrats having a clear edge.

In Virginia, well...Trump isn't winning Virginia.

So there you have it: Clinton could then lose every other swing state and still exceed 270 electoral votes.

At this point, Trump picking off any blue wall state (including Pennsylvania) looks highly unlikely. But what if something insane happens and Donald manages to win, say, Wisconsin or Michigan? Even that wouldn't be enough, because North Carolina is looking very strong for Clinton right now and Trump appears to have no path to victory in Nevada.

So Hillary has a firewall in case something goes haywire in a blue state. But this isn't even counting Florida, which is close as always but still looking good (if we get out the vote!). I'm also encouraged by the early vote in Ohio, Iowa and Arizona, and it wouldn't surprise me if Clinton wins all those states as well.

One last note. While Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight remains the most prestigious election forecast site out there, it's by far the most cautious and bearish about Clinton's chances. So I also recommend sites such as NYT's The Upshot (88% chance of Clinton victory), Shareblue (87% chance) and Huffington Post (98% chance) if you're looking to have less heartburn this week.

Personally, I'm still expecting a big win of 350+ electoral votes and Democrats retaking the Senate. I'm not even writing off winning the House either. And heck, Clinton winning Alaska, Utah or Texas is still on the table as far as I'm concerned. Seriously, anything could happen in a year like this.

To make clear once again, none of this analysis is meant to say that the election is a sure thing and we can relax. Quite the opposite. The only way Clinton defeats Trump is if we vote, get out the vote and volunteer. So let's do this!

Get involved today at HillaryClinton.com

2 comments:

  1. I voted.

    Our local election is also important, l live in Kensington, that is an unincorporated part of Contra Costa County, in California. It's right next to north Berkeley, in the hills, and so a lot of retired professors live here. It has a service district, with elected directors, that provides managing the park, contracting for garbage collection, and is also authorized to provide police services, so that the area isn't dependent on the county sheriff, which is at least a half-hour away.

    Over the years the directors have grown cosy with the police officers, and it's resulted in many scandals. The most publicized one was about one of our cops, who was in Reno with four others (there are ten plus a chief, it's a area of 1 square mile, 2200 homes, 5000 residents, and virtually no crime, based mainly on the location). He hired a female drug addict for sex act, passed out and she took his gun, badge, cuffs and rounds of ammunition and the gun was used in a crime the following day. The directors didn't suspend him, and they continued loaning him at our cost to the county, to help their drug enforcement team, so he was serving warrants to drug addicts and may have been a drug addict himself. The residents didn't learn of it for nine months, when it was a newspaper story, google kensington cop loses gun but not job, more or less.

    The guy who protected the police chief who protected the guy who broke the law in Reno is running for a third term, name of Chuck Toombs, with another fellow who thinks the same way. And there are two well educated women running on competence and seeing it as a job.

    Sound familiar?

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    1. DON'T BE COMPLACENT....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.....JUST VOTE STRAIGHT BLUE...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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