|Photo courtesy HFA|
A lot of factors are suddenly making Democrats jittery in the final days, and some of it might be understandable. We've got one widely-publicized national tracking poll that has swung 13 points in 8 days. The sudden James Comey insanity. Wikileaks. Obamacare premium increases. And maybe just general anxiety that America's future depends on a choice that will be made in just a few days.
In the face of all this, the most important message of all right now is VOTE. If you haven't voted or mailed in your ballot yet, do it today. If you've already voted, talk to every one of your Hillary-supporting friends and family and tell them to do the same. And go to HillaryClinton.com to make calls or volunteer to get out the vote!
Okay, got it? Good. Now let's have one more edition of "Keep Calm and Hillary On".
Here's the national head-to-head Clinton vs Trump chart since September 1st:
|Via Huffington Post|
But the national vote doesn't elect the president, so let's turn to the states.
If the blue wall holds (plus New Mexico), Hillary only needs to win these three states in order to prevail: New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.
In New Hampshire, Clinton has been leading in every reputable poll for as long as I can remember and is currently ahead by six points. It would be a major shocker if Trump wins here, and it's really hard to see it happening.
In Colorado, Clinton leads by an average of five points and early voting is well underway with Democrats having a clear edge.
In Virginia, well...Trump isn't winning Virginia.
So there you have it: Clinton could then lose every other swing state and still exceed 270 electoral votes.
At this point, Trump picking off any blue wall state (including Pennsylvania) looks highly unlikely. But what if something insane happens and Donald manages to win, say, Wisconsin or Michigan? Even that wouldn't be enough, because North Carolina is looking very strong for Clinton right now and Trump appears to have no path to victory in Nevada.
So Hillary has a firewall in case something goes haywire in a blue state. But this isn't even counting Florida, which is close as always but still looking good (if we get out the vote!). I'm also encouraged by the early vote in Ohio, Iowa and Arizona, and it wouldn't surprise me if Clinton wins all those states as well.
One last note. While Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight remains the most prestigious election forecast site out there, it's by far the most cautious and bearish about Clinton's chances. So I also recommend sites such as NYT's The Upshot (88% chance of Clinton victory), Shareblue (87% chance) and Huffington Post (98% chance) if you're looking to have less heartburn this week.
Personally, I'm still expecting a big win of 350+ electoral votes and Democrats retaking the Senate. I'm not even writing off winning the House either. And heck, Clinton winning Alaska, Utah or Texas is still on the table as far as I'm concerned. Seriously, anything could happen in a year like this.
To make clear once again, none of this analysis is meant to say that the election is a sure thing and we can relax. Quite the opposite. The only way Clinton defeats Trump is if we vote, get out the vote and volunteer. So let's do this!
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