Sunday, November 6, 2016

Really, Iowa?


Hey Iowa!

Quick question: Really? I mean...seriously?

More than any other state, Iowa is responsible for the election of our great, historic and beloved President Barack Obama. And now you're on the verge of choosing Donald Trump, king of the racist birthers, to be his successor? You're really about to give your electoral votes to a man who has vowed to roll back every major accomplishment of the Obama presidency? You really want to go down in history as the one Obama 2012 state that flips to Trump in 2016? You really want that awful red mark on your history forever?

If the final Des Moines Register/Selzer "gold standard" poll is correct, it's looking that way:
Donald Trump has surged to a 7-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton among Iowa voters, firmly establishing the Republican presidential nominee as the favorite to win the state’s six electoral votes on Tuesday.

Trump is the top choice for 46 percent of Iowans who have already cast a ballot or plan to do so on Election Day, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, compared to 39 percent who say they’re for Clinton.

That makes the state Trump’s to lose, political analyst Amy Walter said.

“The bigger surprise on election night would be if he lost Iowa, not that he won it,” said Walter, national editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Another bad sign:
Yikes! As a strategy, it makes sense to fortify the blue wall at this point to secure a win for Hillary. Still...sad!

However, I'm not willing to totally write off Iowa just yet. For one thing, the early vote looks decent when compared to 2012, when Obama won by almost 6 points and over 90k votes:
In fact, the Register poll confirms Clinton's early advantage while saying it won't be enough:
At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump. That’s a testament to her campaign’s heavy focus on banking votes during Iowa’s 40-day early vote period. But the data indicate it will not be enough to overcome Trump's support.
More data points: Not every Iowa poll shows Clinton down (Loras and Ipsos/Reuters both have her up by 1 point). DMR/Selzer also blew the call in the final Iowa Republican caucus poll by 8 points (Trump +5 in the poll, Cruz +3 result). And some of Selzer's polls in other states (like Ohio) have been decidedly more bullish on Trump's chances than other major polls.

Maybe the early vote is an indication of a far superior Democratic ground game that can shift the race by a couple of points. Maybe DMR/Selzer is wrong and Loras is right. Maybe there will be a last-minute break toward Hillary among undecideds and third-party voters.

But honestly, a Clinton win in Iowa would be one of the biggest surprises of the night.

America will elect the first woman president with or without you, Iowa. So why sully your reputation by throwing six electoral votes to the worst candidate in American history in the most consequential election of our lifetimes? Seriously...think about that.

If you won't do it for Hillary...do it for yourself!

3 comments:

  1. Trump will probably win Iowa, but not by 7. I suspect it will be closer than that.

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  2. it's the Comey effect, they will not believe that the top law enforcement officer in the nation is a partisan hack who wants to throw the election to a president who will appoint him to the Supreme Court.

    It is something that they cannot believe, challenging that belief would call into question their cherished inner beliefs about having paid their way, never taking a hand-out, having earned their advantages. They'd have to accept that they have had advantages just from being white and born in America, that aren't fair, that they did not earn, and did not deserve, but they yet enjoy.

    Congratulations Comey, you gave Iowa to your man.

    (and some of the praise goes to Bernie, who pretended she was dishonest and gave credence to that idea for the young people, who cannot believe Bernie is a politician and not a uniquely honest man without calling into question their own cherished beliefs.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I just caught the FBI 'reversal.'

    I wonder if Iowa voters want the cheater to prosper.

    Do the people of Iowa think:


    It is fair of Mr. Trump to claim Secretary Hillary is facing criminal charges, when the only candidate facing criminal charges is Mr. Trump?

    Is it fair for Mr. Trump to refuse to release his own tax returns, yet accuse Secretary Hillary of being secretive, when she has released more than 20 years of complete tax returns?

    Is it fair for Mr. Trump to not pay federal taxes, to not help pay for the wars and not help pay for the veterans, and not help pay for the FBI?

    Was it fair that a few FBI agents helped Trump by leaking what turned out to be lies, but that damaged Hillary’s reputation?

    Should cheaters prosper?

    ReplyDelete