Quick question: Really? I mean...seriously?
More than any other state, Iowa is responsible for the election of our great, historic and beloved President Barack Obama. And now you're on the verge of choosing Donald Trump, king of the racist birthers, to be his successor? You're really about to give your electoral votes to a man who has vowed to roll back every major accomplishment of the Obama presidency? You really want to go down in history as the one Obama 2012 state that flips to Trump in 2016? You really want that awful red mark on your history forever?
If the final Des Moines Register/Selzer "gold standard" poll is correct, it's looking that way:
Donald Trump has surged to a 7-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton among Iowa voters, firmly establishing the Republican presidential nominee as the favorite to win the state’s six electoral votes on Tuesday.Another bad sign:
Trump is the top choice for 46 percent of Iowans who have already cast a ballot or plan to do so on Election Day, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, compared to 39 percent who say they’re for Clinton.
That makes the state Trump’s to lose, political analyst Amy Walter said.
“The bigger surprise on election night would be if he lost Iowa, not that he won it,” said Walter, national editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Yikes! As a strategy, it makes sense to fortify the blue wall at this point to secure a win for Hillary. Still...sad!.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) November 6, 2016
However, I'm not willing to totally write off Iowa just yet. For one thing, the early vote looks decent when compared to 2012, when Obama won by almost 6 points and over 90k votes:
In fact, the Register poll confirms Clinton's early advantage while saying it won't be enough:Comparison to this point in 2012:— Iowa Starting Line (@IAStartingLine) November 5, 2016
Dem lead now: 41,881
Dem lead then 2012: 65,099
At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump. That’s a testament to her campaign’s heavy focus on banking votes during Iowa’s 40-day early vote period. But the data indicate it will not be enough to overcome Trump's support.More data points: Not every Iowa poll shows Clinton down (Loras and Ipsos/Reuters both have her up by 1 point). DMR/Selzer also blew the call in the final Iowa Republican caucus poll by 8 points (Trump +5 in the poll, Cruz +3 result). And some of Selzer's polls in other states (like Ohio) have been decidedly more bullish on Trump's chances than other major polls.
Maybe the early vote is an indication of a far superior Democratic ground game that can shift the race by a couple of points. Maybe DMR/Selzer is wrong and Loras is right. Maybe there will be a last-minute break toward Hillary among undecideds and third-party voters.
But honestly, a Clinton win in Iowa would be one of the biggest surprises of the night.
America will elect the first woman president with or without you, Iowa. So why sully your reputation by throwing six electoral votes to the worst candidate in American history in the most consequential election of our lifetimes? Seriously...think about that.
If you won't do it for Hillary...do it for yourself!