However, I'm having trouble settling on just one map! So in addition to the official prediction, I'm also including two more: worst-case scenario and best-case scenario. I expect neither of these other two maps to actually occur, but one is the emergency firewall and the other is a stretch goal in case of an extra-large landslide.
Got it? Okay, let's start with the ugly:
Yikes! Too close to the apocalypse. Way too close. But still, disaster averted.
Basically, the blue wall holds but with PA, MI and NH closer than expected. VA and CO hold on just as the Clinton campaign expects. And NV's early vote has simply been too stellar...it's safe.
To make clear once again, I don't expect to see this map. FL's early vote looks amazing, NC looks very promising, and OH is looking pretty good too. But even in this worst-case scenario, Hillary is the next president.
Now let's get to the good stuff:
BEST CASE SCENARIO
Oh, I want to see this map to happen so bad!
I know it might look out-there at first, but believe it or not I tried to restrain myself a bit in this scenario. The only three states I chose to really go out on a limb for are TX, AK and SC.
Readers of Hillary HQ know that Texas has been a pet project of mine for a long time, and I'm thrilled at the massive turnout and enthusiasm we are seeing across the state. I always thought that it would take the bottom falling out of Trump in order for him to lose Texas. That isn't happening in these final days, apparently. However, Latino turnout is through the roof across the nation and it's hard to know what amount of GOP crossover vote for Hillary will happen. Texas seems ripe for both. Therefore, I'm not throwing in the towel! In this optimistic scenario, Clinton wins at around 2am by 0.2%.
Alaska as a blue state? Now that would be a surreal way to end the night. It seems kinda crazy, but a recent Alaska-based poll had Clinton ahead by four. That shouldn't be ignored, so let's throw it in there!
Finally, there's South Carolina, a state that has received barely any attention despite being stuck right in-between NC and GA. I'm including it because it has somewhat similar demographics as its neighbors and the lack of good recent polls in the state (though SurveyMonkey now has it as Trump +2). And also because I just really want both coasts to be totally, beautifully blue. It's my wildest guess, but there it is.
Also, I have Clinton pulling out an Iowa win while still falling short in Utah.
For all this to (maybe) happen, Hillary will probably need to win by 10 or more points nationwide. It's possible, but unlikely.
Finally, here's the official Hillary HQ electoral map prediction...the one I am most expecting to happen in real life on Tuesday night:
HILLARY HQ PREDICTION
This is the Obama 2008 map minus Indiana but plus Arizona and Georgia.
The two states I'm least sure about are Iowa and Georgia. Iowa isn't looking great right now, but the early vote and mixed polling make me wonder. Still, I'm giving it to Trump in the end...barely. Trump could easily win Georgia, but I'm giving it to Clinton due to great early vote numbers, superior organization, and some last-minute momentum. If she wins there, it'll probably be by less than a point.
Oh yeah, and Arizona turns blue...though that'll be close as well.
So there you have it: a map to keep you from totally freaking out, a dream map to aim for, and my best true guess.
We'll check back on Wednesday to see what I got right! If you have any of your own guesses, kudos or objections let me know in the comments below.
(maps via 270toWin.com)