Monday, November 7, 2016

Hillary HQ's Final Electoral Vote Predictions!

Well, it's time to pick a president! Hard to believe, but here we are. And that means it's time for a final electoral vote prediction.

However, I'm having trouble settling on just one map! So in addition to the official prediction, I'm also including two more: worst-case scenario and best-case scenario. I expect neither of these other two maps to actually occur, but one is the emergency firewall and the other is a stretch goal in case of an extra-large landslide.

Got it? Okay, let's start with the ugly:

WORST-CASE SCENARIO

Yikes! Too close to the apocalypse. Way too close. But still, disaster averted.

Basically, the blue wall holds but with PA, MI and NH closer than expected. VA and CO hold on just as the Clinton campaign expects. And NV's early vote has simply been too stellar...it's safe.

To make clear once again, I don't expect to see this map. FL's early vote looks amazing, NC looks very promising, and OH is looking pretty good too. But even in this worst-case scenario, Hillary is the next president.

Now let's get to the good stuff:

BEST CASE SCENARIO

Oh, I want to see this map to happen so bad! 

I know it might look out-there at first, but believe it or not I tried to restrain myself a bit in this scenario. The only three states I chose to really go out on a limb for are TX, AK and SC.

Readers of Hillary HQ know that Texas has been a pet project of mine for a long time, and I'm thrilled at the massive turnout and enthusiasm we are seeing across the state. I always thought that it would take the bottom falling out of Trump in order for him to lose Texas. That isn't happening in these final days, apparently. However, Latino turnout is through the roof across the nation and it's hard to know what amount of GOP crossover vote for Hillary will happen. Texas seems ripe for both. Therefore, I'm not throwing in the towel! In this optimistic scenario, Clinton wins at around 2am by 0.2%.

Alaska as a blue state? Now that would be a surreal way to end the night. It seems kinda crazy, but a recent Alaska-based poll had Clinton ahead by four. That shouldn't be ignored, so let's throw it in there!

Finally, there's South Carolina, a state that has received barely any attention despite being stuck right in-between NC and GA. I'm including it because it has somewhat similar demographics as its neighbors and the lack of good recent polls in the state (though SurveyMonkey now has it as Trump +2). And also because I just really want both coasts to be totally, beautifully blue. It's my wildest guess, but there it is.

Also, I have Clinton pulling out an Iowa win while still falling short in Utah.

For all this to (maybe) happen, Hillary will probably need to win by 10 or more points nationwide. It's possible, but unlikely.

Finally, here's the official Hillary HQ electoral map prediction...the one I am most expecting to happen in real life on Tuesday night:

HILLARY HQ PREDICTION

This is the Obama 2008 map minus Indiana but plus Arizona and Georgia. 

The two states I'm least sure about are Iowa and Georgia. Iowa isn't looking great right now, but the early vote and mixed polling make me wonder. Still, I'm giving it to Trump in the end...barely. Trump could easily win Georgia, but I'm giving it to Clinton due to great early vote numbers, superior organization, and some last-minute momentum. If she wins there, it'll probably be by less than a point.

Oh yeah, and Arizona turns blue...though that'll be close as well.

So there you have it: a map to keep you from totally freaking out, a dream map to aim for, and my best true guess.

We'll check back on Wednesday to see what I got right! If you have any of your own guesses, kudos or objections let me know in the comments below.

(maps via 270toWin.com)

10 comments:

  1. the market decided, and that makes best case more likely. The Market Endorsement can't be bought, can't be rigged, can't be manipulated, or even tweaked, or massaged, and for sure can't be bullied.

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    1. We'll see! If Texas goes blue, you're going to see a MASSIVE freakout on this site and within the GOP!

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    2. It could happen, the market suggests more rational republicans will make the right choice for their portfolios and for their daughters.

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  2. Well, I can live with any of them. With the mind-boggling amount of extraneous bs in this elections cycle, I'll just be happy if we come thru with a rational president and our democracy intact. :) I'll predict we win NC, FL, and OH, but not GA and AZ. Scott, thank you for your work in this election! Hillary HQ has been lifeblood for Progressive groups like mine on Facebook. Good luck in all future endeavors!

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    1. Thanks DD for being one of Hillary HQ's best friends from the start. I'm hoping that your wrong and we get at LEAST Arizona! I know that would be incredible for you. It's been the opportunity of a lifetime, and who knows...my future endeavor might just be right here at this site during the next Clinton administration! Who knows!

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    2. did you read the thing i wrote below, Desert? Look to Hispanics and rational Republicans.

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    3. oh, you've been Texas, I've been Georgia, thinking Georgia will be the first feather in the 50-state cap.

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  3. What is crazy is. The last poll conducted in Alaska had Alaska going for Clinton by 4 points over Trump. If Alaska goes Blue, Republicans are in Trouble and if Texas goes blue they are toast for the next 16 years or more.

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    1. the hidden voters Trump thought were for him are really for competence and stability and thus for the girl?

      Republicans have been bad for the economy since they got 'hacks 'n think tanks,' and tried to push bad economic policies through by means of sneaky moves. And CItizen's United has been the final nail, the RNC gave away their influenct to rich eccentric billionaires, most all of them.

      The RNC could have evolved into the CEO evidence-based expert party that the people would have most trusted to run things well, and instead they went all stupid, and gave us George Bush, a complete fool and a true incompetent, and that's what wrecked their brand. Trump is just icing.

      but Trump is funny, oh sure, sickly dark funny, and I know it's wrong to laugh, and I am sorry, but

      he flew into Minneapolis to make sure he'd lose that state even huger. He gave a speech in favor of hating Somalis, and even those few who perhaps might wish there wasn't a vibrant Somali community there, would never admit it, it would be that unpopular a position.

      He has never heard of Minnesota Nice?

      (He should get stuck at a four-way with Carole behind the wheel, no you first, no you first, no you first, can last a day.)

      He doesn't know that in Minnesota it's a point of state pride to be tolerant, and to not be racist. (He forgot to watch Fargo?)

      Trump is a classic neurotic narcissist loser, it has to be his dad, he must be in an unconscious war with the old man, and so must lose his dad's filthy lucre. Trump demonstrates a conflict, on one side greed and avarice, and on the other side, shooting himself in the foot and taking his entire 'family' down with him.

      and in the meantime my party, the Democratic Party, has claimed the evidence based expert wonk competence/experience mantel, and we also have patriotism back on our side. We get to love America, and help the needy and downtrodden and invest in the market.

      How cool is that?

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