Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Florida, Florida, Florida

So there's a good chance you've heard about this rather amazing poll:
There was quite a bit of doubt cast about this result because of the 8-point margin, which admittedly is a bit of an outlier in Hillary's favor. But I don't think it's crazy considering the terrific early vote turnout we're seeing. The key is that stunning 28% crossover number among those who have already voted. If that's anywhere close to being accurate, all hope is lost for Trump not just Florida but all across the map. (And yes, that may even include battleground Texas).

If anything, this poll should simply be considered an excellent nerve tonic after a weird and uncertain few days. So don't be jittery, don't freak out, just VOTE and Hillary Clinton will win this thing...possibly in a landslide that shocks the pundits.

A more likely scenario is that Florida is going to be close as always and we can take nothing for granted. And exactly what most "reputable" pollsters are telling us.

For instance, CNN/ORC just came out with a poll showing Clinton leading 49-47. Seems about right. But look at the Senate race:
In Florida, Marco Rubio's once wide lead over Patrick Murphy has evaporated, and the race is now a 1-point contest, 49% back Rubio, 48% Murphy.
A month and a half ago, Rubio led by 11 points in the same poll. So yeah, I'd have to say Murphy has a really solid shot at this, especially if Clinton and her many top-notch surrogates like President Obama keep hammering his opponent.

If Florida goes blue early on the night of November 8th, it's totally over for Trump. And if Murphy keeps gaining momentum, it'll be over for Rubio late on the night of November 8th.

That's what I call happy bookends! Let's make it happen, Florida.

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