Tuesday, October 18, 2016

WOW: Texas is a Toss-Up in Two New Polls!

Hillary Clinton in San Antonio, Oct 2015
Just one day after the Clinton campaign announced a TV ad buy in Texas, we now have fresh evidence that the state is indeed on the brink of turning blue next month!

A new poll by the University of Houston shows a lead of just three points for Donald Trump with many undecided remaining:
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has one of his slimmest leads yet over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Texas, 41 percent to 38 percent, according to a new poll among registered voters. Trump’s support falls within the survey’s margin of error, which is plus- or minus 3 percent, meaning the race is a statistical dead heat.

Released Tuesday by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs, the poll also found that 16 percent of respondents were undecided or refused to answer. Four percent chose Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 1 percent selected Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
Trump’s lead jumps one point – to 4 percent – when the poll considered voters who said they were certain to vote on or before Election Day. Among independent voters in Texas, Clinton dominates Trump, 30 percent to 14 percent. The GOP candidate, however, won the support of a plurality of male respondents, 44 percent to Clinton’s 35 percent, while women support Clinton by a four-point margin, 42 percent to 38 percent.
It's nice to see Clinton outperforming Trump among independents here, though I feel like her advantage among women should be higher. Whatever the case, it's close. Really close.

And another poll today agrees:
Hillary Clinton holds a decisive advantage over Donald Trump in the competition for votes in the Electoral College, leading in enough states to put her comfortably over the 270 majority needed to win the presidential election in November, according to a new SurveyMonkey poll of 15 battleground states conducted with The Washington Post.
Based on the results from the 15 state surveys, along with assumptions of the likely outcomes in other states that have consistently voted for one party or the other, Clinton, the Democratic nominee, holds leads of four points among likely voters or more in states that add up to 304 electoral votes.

Trump, the GOP nominee, has the advantage in states with an estimated electoral vote total of 138. Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Texas, which account for 96 electoral votes, remain as toss-ups.
Here are the six closest states according to the poll:

I gotta admit, this looks funky. Georgia looks good for Clinton while Florida is leaning Trump? And Clinton has a better chance in Texas than Arizona, Ohio, Nevada or Iowa? I'm as excited about Hillary's prospects in Texas as anyone, but even I have to scratch my head at this.

Still, we've got another poll out today agreeing that Texas is a toss-up.

While it's awesome that an ad for Hillary is running in the state, perhaps this is a sign that they should go even further. Early voting starts on Monday the 24th and some get-out-the-vote rallies around that time would excite Texas Democrats like nobody's business! We've had a real turnout problem in the state for a while, but that might change if we truly believe that it's winnable this year.

I believe that the Clinton campaign has a golden opportunity to break the back and morale of the GOP as a national party by winning Texas in 2016...and this humble blogger heartily suggests that they go for it!



  1. Texas was never a Red State, Heavy Gerrymandering and Low Voter Turn out made it Red.

  2. Nice post! This is a very nice blog that I will definitively come back to more times this year! Thanks for informative post. TossTheKey