|Clinton rally in San Antonio, Oct 2015 (photo by Scott Hopkins)|
BREAKING: Our latest poll with UT shows @realDonaldTrump holds a 3-point lead over @HillaryClinton in Texas. https://t.co/HIlg3Z7PFt pic.twitter.com/cum4mtzjHP— Texas Tribune (@TexasTribune) October 27, 2016
JUST IN: Among women voters in Texas, @realDonaldTrump and @HillaryClinton are tied, according to our poll. https://t.co/HIlg3Z7PFt pic.twitter.com/6VfKY60bdR— Texas Tribune (@TexasTribune) October 27, 2016
More from the Texas Tribune:What’s motivating Texas voters? I’m With Her + I’m Against Her https://t.co/ufm4Gvb4Km @realDonaldTrump @HillaryClinton pic.twitter.com/GpYLSVPxri— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 27, 2016
“This is the trend that we’ve been seeing in polling for the last two weeks,” said Jim Henson, co-director of the UT/TT Poll and head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
In spite of the closeness of the race and the margin of error, the number of polls showing similar distance between the candidates, with Trump in front, “is probably a telling us where this race really stands,” Henson said. Close, with a Trump lead, in other words.Obviously, a Republican presidential candidate winning Texas by only three points would be amazing, but that's not good enough. Let's go ahead win this thing!
For that to happen, an unusually high number of unlikely voters will need to show up and swamp polling places like never before. Another recent poll showed Clinton actually leading among registered voters by four points, but that was reversed into a six-point deficit when the likely voter screen was added. So winning outright is simply a matter of everyone showing up, and what better motivator is there than living in a battleground state?
The great news is that early vote turnout is absolutely smashing records all across the state so far. The big question is whether or not the incredible pace keeps up all the way until the final election day. If so, the world might be in for a Texas-sized surprise late in the evening on November 8th.