|Graphic via WFAA|
TEXAS UPDATE: Big Clinton Lead in Harris Co, Kaine Rally in Houston and New Offices Across the State
And now we have some of the best evidence yet that it's really within reach:
After perhaps the most damaging week of his campaign, Donald Trump’s lead in Texas has slipped to four percentage points – within the margin of error – according to a new poll released Thursday night.If the election were held today, there's still a very good chance that Trump would win Texas...if barely. However, the current odds of Hillary winning Texas are greater than the odds of Donald winning Pennsylvania according to 538! For Clinton to edge out Trump in the end, a couple of things need to happen: One, Trump must keep collapsing as a viable candidate. And two, voter registration and turnout must be through the roof.
The survey, commissioned by WFAA-TV and Texas TEGNA television stations, shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 47 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is four percent.
SurveyUSA conducted the poll between Monday and Wednesday of this week – after both the 2005 video in which Trump used lewd comments describing women and the second presidential debate in St. Louis on Sunday night.
In recent weeks, two other statewide polls showed Trump up by six and seven points, respectively.
We already know the first thing is happening because no one is escaping the relentless awfulness of the Donald. But the second thing might be happening too.
Texas has a record-breaking 15 million people registered to vote ahead of the November election, the Secretary of State’s office announced Thursday.Obviously, being registered isn't enough. But luckily, early voting in Texas is a two-week process that I've always found to be fast and convenient. Voting kicks off on Monday, October 24th.
Texas has 15,015,700 voters registered according to a preliminary estimate — over 777,000 more than were registered in time for the March primaries. The deadline to register to vote was Tuesday.
In 2012, Texas registered 13,646,226 voters or 75 percent of the voting-age population. In 2008, the number was 13,575,062 or 77 percent of the voting-age population, according to the news release. This year's figure amounts to 78 percent of the voting-age population and more than 1.3 million additional registered voters from four years ago, according to the news release.
Travis County reported earlier this week that over 90 percent of its residents had registered to vote, a milestone in the county’s history. Nearby Bexar County tallied registering over 1 million people to vote, a 12.8 percent increase since November 2012. Harris County, the state's largest county, reported registration numbers were up this year by 6 percent, their steepest increase in 16 years.
As far as involvement from the top down, Texas is at a disadvantage because there is no senate race this year (unlike other flippable states like Arizona, Indiana, Georgia and Missouri). But maybe there's a close House race or two in Texas (out of our total 36) that could use a helping hand from the Clinton campaign? Control of the House will be a game of inches this year, so every little bit would make the difference. And who knows...it might be so close that a few big rallies might just push Texas over the edge late into the night on November 8th.
Finally, for any remaining naysayers out there, here is the CEO of the Texas Tribune just a few days ago:
And also this:If you’re asking me if I think there’s a chance now that @hillaryclinton wins Texas, the answer is yes. Can’t believe I typed those words https://t.co/mwBCyC0v35— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 8, 2016
So yeah...a blue Texas is within site, y'all. Really. No joke. But it won't happen on its own.Texas-based GOP strategist @MattMackowiak, a Trump critic, tells me he thinks Hillary Clinton can win Texas now.— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 8, 2016
VOLUNTEER FOR HILLARY IN TEXAS!
VOLUNTEER FOR THE TEXAS DEMOCRATIC PARTY!