|Hillary in Des Moines, IA 9/29 (photo courtesy HFA)|
It looks like Hillary's convention bounce finally faded by the end of August and we've settled back into the 4-point lead which was typical for the summer. And because of Trump's recent stumbles, it wouldn't surprise me if Clinton edges up once more fairly soon (particularly after the first debate).Honestly, so much crazy stuff has happened over the past two weeks that I can't even remember what Trump "stumbles" I was referring to then! But if we examine the trend lines closely, we can see that Hillary indeed gained about a point on Donald in the week before the debate. And she's gained another point in the week since, bringing her up to a six-point national lead!
This is a robust advantage that may grow even bigger in the wake of Saturday's tax return bombshell, additional debates and who-knows-what other crazy stuff we'll see from Trump. And for a little historical context, Obama led Romney by less than half a percentage point at the time of the amazing Biden/Ryan VP debate of 2012. And we all know how that election turned out.
In last week's installment of the series ("42 Days To Go"), I guessed that Clinton would get a 3-4 point bump from the first debate. While we're not seeing that in the averages (yet), we have seen some impressive individual national and state polls that match or even exceed it (for instance, the new CNN national poll shows a 7-point shift since early September).
One more thing: I'd like to see more data before I can be sure, but it appears that third-party candidates are starting to have less impact on Clinton's lead. For instance, in today's NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll, Clinton leads by six points in both the two-way and four-way matchups. Could the ongoing Trump disaster, millennial outreach by Clinton and endorsements of Gary Johnson by a few influential conservative editorial boards end up causing Donald to suffer in four-way matchups instead of Hillary? Could be...stay tuned.
Next week I'll take another deep dive into the individual swing state polls. Until then, here are some quick takes from around Twitter:
I think we're up to four post-debate polls with Clinton leading in North Carolina...— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 4, 2016
New Nevada poll (by Hart Research/UNLV) finds Clinton +3. All 3 post-debate polls have Clinton ahead in the state. https://t.co/oBqUQBjXkN— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) October 4, 2016
Every poll taken after the debate in Florida has Clinton ahead, & it's basically impossible for Trump to win w/o it https://t.co/RbYREgq8f3— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 3, 2016
Trump: "The good news, it seems like we’re up in Colorado.”— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) October 4, 2016
Clinton +11 in CO, per poll out today: https://t.co/2xTdhCJMCP
New Virginia poll shows Clinton leading by 7, with an uptick in support from millennial voters. https://t.co/OCQ8l6IZ9A @wusa9— Garrett Haake (@GarrettHaake) October 3, 2016