Friday, October 7, 2016

Post-Debate, Voters are Abandoning Trump in Droves

A post-debate (and post-debate meltdown) theme seems to be emerging.

New York Times, Oct: 5th:
Donald J. Trump’s support has plunged across the swing-state map over the last 10 days, wiping out his political recovery from September and threatening to undo weeks of Republican gains in the battle for control of Congress.

Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop, especially among independent voters, moderate Republicans and women, according to a dozen strategists from both parties who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the data was confidential.

Liesl Hickey, a Republican strategist involved in several House races in swing states, said she was dismayed by a sudden exodus of independent voters in more diverse parts of the country.

“They are really starting to pull away from Trump,” said Ms. Hickey, describing his soaring unpopularity with independents as entering “uncharted territory.”
Washington Post, today:
As Donald Trump jetted to Colorado on Monday, his presidential campaign was on life support. His momentum had been zapped by a turbulent week, book-ended by an unsteady debate and an erratic display at his last rally. In Washington, GOP leaders were analyzing internal polls that charted a Trump collapse in nearly every swing state.
By the way, go and read the whole piece. It's a fascinating glimpse into Donald's downward spiral.

And today comes a new Quinnipiac national poll that shows Clinton with an astonishing 20-point lead among independents! Normally I'd think this is crazy, but it matches up with current reporting about the bottom falling out from under Trump in private polls:
"Post-debate, Hillary Clinton checks all the boxes. With her base of women and non- white voters now solidly behind her and independent voters moving into her column, Donald Trump gets a wake-up call," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The Indies are leaving in droves."
It was in the field after Trump's 1995 tax information was released and immediately after the VP debate, so also take that for what it's worth as well. The poll also shows Clinton with more of her party's backing than Trump, which should seemingly add up to a double-digit overall lead. But since this is Quinnipiac, somehow Hillary still only leads by mid-single digits...and it's hard to see how they arrived at this when looking at the internals. That's all I'll say about that.

What matters is, Donald Trump is well on his way to losing in a landslide and the next debate might just seal the deal.

1 comment:

  1. Hillary has a lot of things going for her, she relates to middle Americans and to those in the South, not just us big city godless types who want her policies enacted, and who want the girl who had to make herself best qualified and best informed to get as far as she has, and who is dissed for not being 'new' too, to win for girls, and to keep what matters to us front and center, equal pay, quality affordable education, pre-k through skies the limit, well-designed buildings made to still look great in 100+ years. Clean indoor and outdoor air, clean water and lots of it, an explosion of libraries that provide all the tools anyone would need, that expands as that expands. Cool and pleasing public transportation, mixing up the rich with the poor in housing, and and and ...

    I want her urban hiking trail to go in and around Baltimore, with the electric shuttle busses that take people to wherever it's happening.

    But my Republican friends just want her to get it all organized and in tip top shape, to have protocols so someone else can step into agency positions and know what to do. They like it that she doesn't make political appointments, she makes best qualified, able to work well with others, admits mistakes and learns from them, and never takes credit for anyone else's work appointments. For Hillary, in secular service it's where you stand on following the law, and where you stand on competence and improving skills and earning your pay. And where you stand on ending institutional racism, and insuring that women don't lose rights, but gain some more, like equal pay. That's why she could pick Kaine, who thinks abortion is wrong, but who upholds the law and believes woman can make those decisions for ourselves, believes all humans own their own bodies, not just white men.

    and secretly they are not against her progressive policies, if not because they aren't heartless, but because investing in all Americans who could use some investing in helps all Americans. Go figure.