Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Monmouth Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by 10 in Pennsylvania

It's starting to look like Hillary Clinton is securing a solid win in Pennsylvania!
Pennsylvania is looking good for Hillary Clinton, driven by gains among white women voters, according to the Monmouth University Poll . She currently has a 10 point lead over Donald Trump, similar to her 8 point lead in August...

Among Keystone State voters likely to cast ballots in November's presidential election, 50% currently support Clinton and 40% back Trump. Another 5% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 2% back Jill Stein of the Green Party, and 2% are undecided. In late August, Clinton led Trump by 48% to 40%.

The Republican nominee's support has slipped among white voters in the Keystone State, who are now divided 46% for Clinton and 45% for Trump. In August, they gave Trump a 48% to 39% edge. This is mainly driven by a swing among white women - who currently support Clinton by a 55% to 35% margin. Just over a month ago, they were divided at 46% for Clinton and 45% for Trump. White men continue to back Trump - 57% to 35% for Clinton - compared with 50% to 32% in late August.

"Clinton has been blanketing the Pennsylvania airwaves with ads that highlight Trump's controversial statements, particularly about women. They appear to have had an impact," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Significantly more Democrats support Clinton (90%) than Republicans who back Trump (75%). That marks a 4 point gain in partisan support for Clinton and a 6 point loss in partisan support for Trump since August. Independents remain divided at 43% for Trump and 38% for Clinton, with 13% supporting Johnson and 5% supporting Stein. Monmouth's prior poll put independent support at Trump 39%, Clinton 36%, Johnson 17%, and Stein 2%.
As a reminder, FiveThirtyEight ranks Monmouth as an A+ rated pollster, and one of their forecasters has this to say in response to the post-debate Pennsylvania surveys:
He's right, obviously. But even worse for Trump, all of these polls only partially capture the fallout from the Saturday night tax return bombshell.

There's still a lot to cover, and I'll have more on Clinton's surge nationally and in the swing states in this afternoon's "State of the Race".

1 comment:

  1. Pennsylvania is a lot like Ohio, except diverse and not racist. Accounts for 15 points.