Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Hillary Clinton Will Win Ohio

Toledo, OH (photo courtesy HFA)
In the aftermath of the first debate, Hillary Clinton is currently considered to be in a much better position in the swing states than Donald Trump. These include the states that will likely secure her the presidency: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire. But let's be honest here: Florida and North Carolina aren't going Donald's way right now either. That leaves Nevada, Iowa and Ohio. Nevada looks fairly okay right now, Iowa doesn't, and Ohio...what about Ohio?

Ohio odds via 538
I never really bought the recent prevailing wisdom that Hillary is in trouble there. For one thing, the polls have been all over the place and no swing state is that swingy over the course of a month. For another thing, I just don't think the fundamentals have changed that much in four years. Yes, Trump might win more of the non-college whites than Romney. Then again, the economy has improved measurably since then. It will stay tight until the end, but with Clinton's superior ground operation and early voting, my guess is that she's end up with an Ohio win margin of about 2%. Basically, very similar to what Obama did last time.

As it happens, today's post-debate/post-Donald meltdown Monmouth poll shows Clinton with a 2-point lead there, which has caused 538 to re-tip the state towards Hillary (see chart).

Also keep in mind that Hillary's national lead is around 6% now. If that ends up being close to the final margin, she'll definitely win Ohio. But even if she doesn't, she'll still be the next president thanks to wins in other swing states.

That leaves Iowa, the state that propelled Barack Obama to the Democratic nomination and voted for him twice in the general election. Are they really going to shame themselves by voting for a racist birther to take his place in the White House? C'mon...get with the program, Iowa!

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