Sunday, October 30, 2016

Clinton Leads Trump 47% to 43% in Alaska. Wait...What?!

Thought Texas could be the biggest surprise of Election Night 2016? Maybe not!
A poll of likely voters in Alaska shows Hillary Clinton with a growing lead over Donald Trump particularly with younger voters and women, mirroring trends seen in the lower-48. Craciun Research surveyed 400 voters and found 47-43 leaning for the Democratic nominee with less than two weeks until Election Day.

Trump’s support with likely voters meanwhile has dipped 4% since mid-October. The Gender Gap is at levels not experienced in the recent past with women supporting Clinton by a margin of 17% (55% to 38% respectively). Further impacting the race is the unprecedented endorsement of Clinton by the Alaska Federation of Natives board. In the rural North and Northwest regions of the State, the poll shows Clinton is beating Trump by a margin of almost 5:1 (74% to 15%).
Amazing. And get this:
The poll may also shed light on who the 18% still undecided voters may pick. “If you look at non-partisan voters, Secretary Clinton is winning by a margin of 15 points. That may give you a sense of how the undecided voters will lean on Election Day,” according to pollster Jean Craciun.
If this poll is to be believed, Alaska could turn blue for the first time since 1964! Which sounds insane, but the details (rural numbers, gender gap and indies voting for Clinton) make me think that maybe there's something to this. And this isn't the only poll to show Clinton doing well there, which has led 538 to currently give her a 30% chance of winning it. To put that in perspective, Hillary has a better chance of winning Alaska than Donald has of winning Nevada!

This year has been so weird on so many levels that I feel like there has to be some crazy surprises on Election Day. Hillary Clinton wrapping up the night by winning Alaska would certainly qualify.

So on that note, Alaska early voting is happening now. Let's go ahead and make it happen!