Thursday, September 22, 2016

TEXAS UPDATE: Big Clinton Lead in Harris Co, Kaine Rally in Houston and New Offices Across the State

Hillary Clinton in San Antonio, Oct 2015
Last week, a poll came out showing Clinton leading Trump by four points in Texas among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup. And today we have more indications that the Lone Star State might really be in play.

Harris County, which includes Houston and extensive suburbs, is by far the most populous in the state. So if Clinton has a shot at winning Texas, she must run up the score here...and a new poll is showing just that.
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has a comfortable 10-point lead over her Republican rival, Donald Trump, among registered voters in Harris County, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs showed Clinton winning 42 percent support to Trump’s 32 percent. Nine percent of respondents said they back Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, while 2 percent said they support Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Should Clinton carry the county with a double-digit margin, it would mark the widest margin of victory for a Democratic candidate in Harris County since 1964. Harris County, the third largest in the nation, long has been a competitive county during presidential election years. In 2012, President Barack Obama beat Republican challenger Mitt Romney there by nearly 600 votes. Obama edged out GOP nominee John McCain in 2008 by just under 2 percentage points, 50.4 percent to 48.8 percent.

“The results suggest that the outcome of the presidential contest in Harris County, as well as the results of dozens of down-ballot contests, could hinge heavily on the level of voter enthusiasm and turnout,” said Jim Granato, professor and executive director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs.
1964? Sure, an LBJ-style landslide would be great right about now!

But just as we saw in last week's statewide poll, it's all about turnout:
When the poll considered only likely voters, Clinton's lead slipped to 9 percentage points. In the survey's pool of extremely likely voters, though, the race is firmly within the margin of error, with Clinton at 43 percent and Trump at 39 percent.
And what better way to boost turnout than to have a rally? And look...that's exactly what's happening Friday in Houston!

Allow me to spell this out loud and clear to make sure the people in back can hear it:
  • This is a general election rally.
  • In late September. 
  • With the Democratic candidate for vice president. 
  • In Texas! 
In addition, new Hillary for America campaign offices are now opening in Austin, San Antonio, HoustonDallas and El Paso! And let's not forget the grassroots "West Texas for Hillary" office in Lubbock that opened up last month!

These developments are simply further evidence that Texas could be one of the big sleeper stories of this unprecedented and insane election. If the Clinton campaign believed that Trump was truly catching up in enough swing states to barely win, they wouldn't be opening offices and having rallies in Texas. Instead, they'd be bulking up resources even more in states like Pennsylvania and Colorado like the smart operation they are.

Hillary and Tim have already made clear that they are serious about winning Texas, and with close polls piling up, new campaign offices opening up and general election rallies now taking place...the time has come for Democrats across the state to get serious as well.

Remember: Electoral miracles can and do sometimes happen, but not on their own.



  1. Enough is Enough of GOP corruption and one party rule in Texas, it is past time for democrats to turn that state blue.