Tuesday, September 6, 2016

State of the Race: 63 Days To Go

(Andy Abeyta/Quad-City Times)
Here's a quick survival guide until November 8th:
  • The media likes a "close race" narrative because it means higher ratings.
  • The underdog likes a "close race" narrative because it keeps supporters engaged and the money flowing.
  • The frontrunner likes a "close race" narrative for the exact same reason as the underdog (in fact, you may have just received an email from Hillary with the subject "Fwd: Breaking: Trump +2").
The loser in this scenario? Our nation's collective sanity for the next two months. Sad!

But as an independent blogger, I'm in a position to give you the truth as I see it...and here it is: Some national polls (Fox News and most notably CNN) have shown a Trump surge recently, while others (NBC/SurveyMonkey, USA Today/Suffolk, PPP and Monmouth) have shown it pretty steady. Here's how it looks since August 1st in chart form:

via HuffPost
A slightly-tightened race with Clinton hanging onto about a 5-point lead sounds just about right.

But, again, national polls don't pick presidents...swing states do. And on that front, it seems like the race has barely changed at all this week. The media has focused almost exclusively on Trump while pushing bogus non-scandals involving the Clinton Foundation, emails and even Anthony Weiner over the last few weeks, and the polls seem to be picking that up right now. However, there are hints that the narrative may be changing back in Hillary's favor this week thanks to her press conferences and Donald's emerging pay-to-play scandals. NBC's "Commander-in-Chief Forum" on Wednesday night (which is essentially a debate warm-up) may have an effect too.

Whatever the case, Clinton is still leading with nine weeks to go...but it's far from a sure thing. So don't be scared, be determined. Don't be panicky, be a volunteer. And don't be complacent, make a donation to the Hillary Victory Fund.

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  1. The 12-15 point leads were based on moderate Republicans reacting to Trump's extreme missteps following the convention. Those margins aren't sustainable unless Trump is actively saying something really crazy. (Not that that might not happen again, at any time!)

    1. He'll definitely say some crazy things again...probably in the debates!

  2. Hillary is working the 50-state, to take back the house and the senate, so she can get progressive policies enacted. Now it's past labor day, so the campaign begins. it isn't as easy to 'cartoon' her when she's taking interviews. She wasn't just fund-raising while gone, she was also presenting the regional policies in their regions. She can't get the MSM to cover policies. They just like scandals.

    But when the frenzied ambitious media goes too far, as with the fake foundation scandal that actually showed no pay to play, they get backlash from within their own. Bashing Hillary is a lucrative industry, but it isn't reporting.

    And with the moderators not fact-checking, I am fine with that, it's the other one on the debate stage that should fact check, 1, 2, 3 ...

    she may have to educate on debates too, debates aren't just winning the argument and convincing the audience she's best, it's also debunking what the other one claims when it's made up or already shown to be worthless or worse.

    1. The "pre-debate" is tonight...its a town hall with each candidate going one at a time. But hopefully the moderator will keep Trump in check.