|Hillary @ Temple University, 9/19/16 (photo courtesy HFA)|
Today's Monmouth survey out of Florida is encouraging, as is the uptick for Clinton in the NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll. But really, I'm still not convinced that Trump had too much of a surge last week...prevailing wisdom be damned!
To back this up, look at the national Clinton vs Trump chart from August 1st through today:
By the way, when the next installment of "State of the Race" rolls around, the first debate will be over and general election early voting will have already begun in Minnesota, New Jersey, South Dakota and Vermont. No doubt about it, the end is near!
I'll leave you with a couple of interesting readings.
First there's this in-depth Florida assessment by the state's political veteran Steve Schale. The analysis seems solid, and here's his conclusion:
I do believe Clinton has a narrow edge for two reasonsIf you're interested in this extremely important state, I'd read the whole thing.
Demographics: The state is getting more diverse, and while that doesn’t guarantee her a win, it does give her a cushion. Based on growth alone, Obama’s 0.9% win in 2012 is probably worth closer to 1.2-1.5% in 2016, simply based on demographic trends. She has a cushion to bleed a little among whites, and still win.
Organization: This is where the Clinton operation will reap its investment. By registering voters, and turning out more of the lower propensity Black and Hispanic voters, her campaign can capitalize on the demographic advantages. Organizations are like kickers in football – they aren’t vital in blowouts, but you better have a good one in a close game, and they are building an organization designed to win a close election.
Also, remember my post "Polls Are All Over the Place. Keep Calm and Hillary On!" from last week? Well, it turns out that Hillary's own campaign manager Robby Mook came out with a similar memo last night.
Some excerpts, via Politico:
“Here’s the story that no poll can tell: Hillary Clinton has many paths to 270 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has very few. Hillary is nearly certain to win 16 ‘ blue' states, including Washington D.C., which will garner her 191 electoral votes,” writes Mook in the nearly 2,000-word memo that was blasted out in the early evening, and which was obtained by POLITICO. “If we add the five states that FiveThirtyEight.com gives Hillary a 70% or greater chance of winning (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin), Hillary only needs 10 more electoral votes."and:
“You’ve heard us say many times that public polls must be taken with a grain of salt, but here’s why we should just dump out the entire salt shaker: in early September, an ABC/News Washington Post poll showed Hillary leading by eight points. Four days later, Reuters/IPSOS released a poll saying Hillary’s lead was only one point. Here’s my favorite: earlier this month, a CBS/YouGov poll showed Hillary winning Ohio by seven points (46-39) and three days later a Bloomberg Poll came out showing Trump winning Ohio by five (44-39),” Mook writes.
“A swing of 12 points in three days? Go figure. Is Ohio a very close contest? YES. Battleground states carry that name for a reason: they’re going to be close, from now until Election Day."
Just to be clear, Hillary HQ is completely independent from the Clinton campaign, I've never spoken to their campaign manager and I'm sure he doesn't need my analysis to know what's up. But hey Robby, if you're listening...feel free to drop me a line if you'd like to have a friendly chat about the race! The contact box is on the lower right.