Tuesday, September 20, 2016

State of the Race: 49 Days To Go

Hillary @ Temple University, 9/19/16 (photo courtesy HFA)
Hey, who's glad last week is over? I know I am! No more pneumonia, "deplorables" and rough polls dominating the headlines. Now it's all about Donald's racist birtherism, another threat of violence against his opponent, more Trump Foundation scandals, Skittles and better poll numbers.

Today's Monmouth survey out of Florida is encouraging, as is the uptick for Clinton in the NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll. But really, I'm still not convinced that Trump had too much of a surge last week...prevailing wisdom be damned!

To back this up, look at the national Clinton vs Trump chart from August 1st through today:

Via HuffPost
It looks like Hillary's convention bounce finally faded by the end of August and we've settled back into the 4-point lead which was typical for the summer. And because of Trump's recent stumbles, it wouldn't surprise me if Clinton edges up once more fairly soon (particularly after the first debate).

By the way, when the next installment of "State of the Race" rolls around, the first debate will be over and general election early voting will have already begun in Minnesota, New Jersey, South Dakota and Vermont. No doubt about it, the end is near!

I'll leave you with a couple of interesting readings.

First there's this in-depth Florida assessment by the state's political veteran Steve Schale. The analysis seems solid, and here's his conclusion:
I do believe Clinton has a narrow edge for two reasons

Demographics: The state is getting more diverse, and while that doesn’t guarantee her a win, it does give her a cushion. Based on growth alone, Obama’s 0.9% win in 2012 is probably worth closer to 1.2-1.5% in 2016, simply based on demographic trends. She has a cushion to bleed a little among whites, and still win.

Organization: This is where the Clinton operation will reap its investment. By registering voters, and turning out more of the lower propensity Black and Hispanic voters, her campaign can capitalize on the demographic advantages. Organizations are like kickers in football – they aren’t vital in blowouts, but you better have a good one in a close game, and they are building an organization designed to win a close election.
If you're interested in this extremely important state, I'd read the whole thing.

Also, remember my post "Polls Are All Over the Place. Keep Calm and Hillary On!" from last week? Well, it turns out that Hillary's own campaign manager Robby Mook came out with a similar memo last night.

Some excerpts, via Politico:
“Here’s the story that no poll can tell: Hillary Clinton has many paths to 270 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has very few. Hillary is nearly certain to win 16 ‘ blue' states, including Washington D.C., which will garner her 191 electoral votes,” writes Mook in the nearly 2,000-word memo that was blasted out in the early evening, and which was obtained by POLITICO. “If we add the five states that FiveThirtyEight.com gives Hillary a 70% or greater chance of winning (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin), Hillary only needs 10 more electoral votes."
“You’ve heard us say many times that public polls must be taken with a grain of salt, but here’s why we should just dump out the entire salt shaker: in early September, an ABC/News Washington Post poll showed Hillary leading by eight points. Four days later, Reuters/IPSOS released a poll saying Hillary’s lead was only one point. Here’s my favorite: earlier this month, a CBS/YouGov poll showed Hillary winning Ohio by seven points (46-39) and three days later a Bloomberg Poll came out showing Trump winning Ohio by five (44-39),” Mook writes.

“A swing of 12 points in three days? Go figure. Is Ohio a very close contest? YES. Battleground states carry that name for a reason: they’re going to be close, from now until Election Day."
Just to be clear, Hillary HQ is completely independent from the Clinton campaign, I've never spoken to their campaign manager and I'm sure he doesn't need my analysis to know what's up. But hey Robby, if you're listening...feel free to drop me a line if you'd like to have a friendly chat about the race! The contact box is on the lower right.

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  1. I agree with all that! The most important thing I'm glad to see is that Hillary herself seems to be doing well. I don't think she was really very sick; she just worked herself into exhaustion. Now she seems fresh and sharp; I think the couple of days rest were exactly what she needed,at exactly the right time.

    1. Yep, you never know when something "bad" turns into a blessing in disguise.

  2. Trump, on the other hand, seems tentative and rattled. I think he's scared about the debate. They might ask hard questions!

    1. He's not even taking hard questions NOW!

  3. so much is on her, and while she has support, it's on her alone. And that's the job she is wiling to do, for us. I am so grateful to her.