Tuesday, September 27, 2016

State of the Race: 42 Days To Go

Hillary's face in this post-debate photo tells you all you need to know about the state of the race today.

A ton of pre-debate polls came out on Monday. In the morning, the results were pretty much horrendous. But by the early afternoon, some better polls started creeping in. And by the time the debate began, the day's overall polling seemed to tilt Hillary's way a bit. Among the most encouraging were the weekly tracking polls by NBC News/SurveyMonkey and YouGov, both of which showed an uptick for Hillary in the head-to-head matchups:

Here's the thing, though: Hillary just destroyed Donald in the first debate...so these numbers are pretty much meaningless indicators of where the race stands today.

My hunch, however, is that Clinton will get a nice 3-4 point bump in the next round of polls. Her footing will be regained in Ohio and Iowa, and her position in the rest of the swing states will be solidified. It also wouldn't surprise me if the impact of the debate is even greater than expected, and this is why:
In about a week, we'll have a really good idea about the impact of the debate. Then the vice presidential debate occurs on Tuesday night, and I expect Tim Kaine to also do quite well. Five days later, Clinton and Trump face off for the second time. Ten days later comes the final debate.

And twenty days after that, Hillary Clinton will win the presidency.


  1. I just love that photo of Hillary - the expression on her face says it all! That's who she is and I am so proud of her. I just love and admire this woman and I sincerely hope to be referring to her as Madame President in a few weeks. Could the debate have gone any better for her!?

  2. With so many people in the 3rd party camp, it's almost certain that Hillary will have persuaded some of them. I don't think Trump endeared himself to anyone. (Except the cokehead vote, and they're not very reliable. :) )