Awesome news! A CBS News/YouGov poll taken late last week shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by seven points in Ohio, her best showing yet!
Well, it looks like she's running away with this thing so I guess we'll move on to...oh...
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Ohio, a gap that underscores the Democrat’s challenges in critical Rust Belt states after one of the roughest stretches of her campaign.Damn. I guess Donald Trump made some strides over the weekend as a result of the "deplorables"/pneumonia thing. So maybe the race has changed and we'll need to start worrying.
The Republican nominee leads Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a two-way contest and 44 percent to 39 percent when third-party candidates are included.
Wait...scratch that. Other polls taken over the weekend found no real change:
PPP's new Virginia poll finds that Hillary Clinton is still in a pretty good position in the state. In the full field she leads with 45% to 39% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head contest just against Trump, she leads 50/42.And in this national poll:
The latest Economist/YouGov Poll was conducted both before and after Hillary Clinton left the campaign trail because of a pneumonia diagnosis. But there is no indication that opinions were greatly changed. Polling began on Saturday and continued through Tuesday. Last week’s two-point Clinton lead remained unchanged: she leads Republican Donald Trump 42% to 40% in the four-way contest, and 46% to 44% in the two-way race.Whew! I guess the Bloomberg poll of Ohio was an outlier. So I guess we can relax and...oh...
With eight weeks to go before Election Day, Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in Ohio and the two are locked in a near-even contest in Florida, according to new CNN/ORC polls in the two critical battleground states.She apparently took a hit in Nevada as well.
Among likely voters in Ohio, Trump stands at 46% to Clinton's 41%, with 8% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Florida, likely voters split 47% for Trump to 44% for Clinton, within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error, and with 6% behind Johnson and 1% backing Stein.
Uh oh, panic time! Or wait...maybe not, according to the infamous Quinnipiac.
It's hard to say for sure what's going on here. But without unskewing anything, let me make a couple of observations.
Regarding the Bloomberg Ohio poll:
Read the details. Pollster Ann Selzer says this projects a '04 electorate rather than a '12 electorate. https://t.co/8UP5sXpbLf— Hillary HQ (@Hillary_HQ) September 14, 2016
If you believe that the president has a far lower approval rating in Ohio than the rest of the nation and a 2004 electorate will show up instead of a 2012 electorate, then this poll is for you. But I have my doubts. Similarly, the CNN's Ohio poll also gives Republicans a slight advantage even though the Democratic edge in 2012 turnout was +7.This poll is awful for Dems from top to bottom. Even President Obama only manages 46% approval. Not buying it. https://t.co/p566Har6A6— Hillary HQ (@Hillary_HQ) September 14, 2016
I don't doubt that Florida and Nevada are close, but it's worth noting that Hillary actually edges out Donald among registered voters in Florida. Maybe Democrats just need a little more motivation in the homestretch!
One other thing to consider is that Democrats are also getting totally stomped in the senate races in Ohio and Florida in today's polls, suggesting either a souring on Democrats in general or right-leaning samples. I suspect the latter for now, but stay tuned.
Rather than reading too much into all this, I recommend waiting for the post-debate polls (arriving before you know it) before anyone pushes the panic button. Also, keep in mind that Hillary is probably over 270 already thanks to sturdy leads in Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
In other words, as always...
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