Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Polls Are All Over the Place. Keep Calm and Hillary On!

Awesome news! A CBS News/YouGov poll taken late last week shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by seven points in Ohio, her best showing yet!

Well, it looks like she's running away with this thing so I guess we'll move on to...oh...
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Ohio, a gap that underscores the Democrat’s challenges in critical Rust Belt states after one of the roughest stretches of her campaign.

The Republican nominee leads Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a two-way contest and 44 percent to 39 percent when third-party candidates are included.
Damn. I guess Donald Trump made some strides over the weekend as a result of the "deplorables"/pneumonia thing. So maybe the race has changed and we'll need to start worrying.

Wait...scratch that. Other polls taken over the weekend found no real change:
PPP's new Virginia poll finds that Hillary Clinton is still in a pretty good position in the state. In the full field she leads with 45% to 39% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head contest just against Trump, she leads 50/42.
And in this national poll:
The latest Economist/YouGov Poll was conducted both before and after Hillary Clinton left the campaign trail because of a pneumonia diagnosis. But there is no indication that opinions were greatly changed. Polling began on Saturday and continued through Tuesday. Last week’s two-point Clinton lead remained unchanged: she leads Republican Donald Trump 42% to 40% in the four-way contest, and 46% to 44% in the two-way race.
Whew! I guess the Bloomberg poll of Ohio was an outlier. So I guess we can relax and...oh...
With eight weeks to go before Election Day, Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in Ohio and the two are locked in a near-even contest in Florida, according to new CNN/ORC polls in the two critical battleground states.

Among likely voters in Ohio, Trump stands at 46% to Clinton's 41%, with 8% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Florida, likely voters split 47% for Trump to 44% for Clinton, within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error, and with 6% behind Johnson and 1% backing Stein.
She apparently took a hit in Nevada as well.

Uh oh, panic time! Or wait...maybe not, according to the infamous Quinnipiac.

It's hard to say for sure what's going on here. But without unskewing anything, let me make a couple of observations.

Regarding the Bloomberg Ohio poll:
If you believe that the president has a far lower approval rating in Ohio than the rest of the nation and a 2004 electorate will show up instead of a 2012 electorate, then this poll is for you. But I have my doubts. Similarly, the CNN's Ohio poll also gives Republicans a slight advantage even though the Democratic edge in 2012 turnout was +7.

I don't doubt that Florida and Nevada are close, but it's worth noting that Hillary actually edges out Donald among registered voters in Florida. Maybe Democrats just need a little more motivation in the homestretch!

One other thing to consider is that Democrats are also getting totally stomped in the senate races in Ohio and Florida in today's polls, suggesting either a souring on Democrats in general or right-leaning samples. I suspect the latter for now, but stay tuned.

Rather than reading too much into all this, I recommend waiting for the post-debate polls (arriving before you know it) before anyone pushes the panic button. Also, keep in mind that Hillary is probably over 270 already thanks to sturdy leads in Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

In other words, as always...

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  1. Calm down dear,this numbers are temporary. The BIG BANG is coming.
    Stay positive Hillary & Supporters, still a long way to go. Things change on daily basis. In the end, Hillary will bounce back - BIG BOUNCE on the way. Have peace and faith in your heart. Hillary will emerged the VICTOR. Keep praying for her. Speak out a faith filled words daily for Hillary/Tim team. Words like " No weapons formed against Hillary will prosper. "To quote a known Pastor words "Hillary is a VICTOR NOT A VICTIM." The still voice tells me, Hillary will be the next and First Woman US President.As a distant supporter of Hillary, that's comforting to me. A reassurance that my family in America will be just fine.

  2. glad to have had the head's up, I just woke up to them.

    Americans are crabbier then is generally recognized.

    It's become so endemic it's hard to see. It's a lot of what fueled the Bernie thing, without him needing to make sense, his anger that was shared, but without necessarily knowing why.

    Everyone is feeling it and without empathy, the pill for it is smirking.

    While my girl speaks to my own bad times are getting better, because I am a girl too, and I've been kicked for being a castrating and/or job-stealing working woman, and Hillary is a champion for feminists like me, being kicked isn't reserved for women.

    She's a champion for progressives like me too, who aren't into the grand words that will never happen, we still don't have a star wars defense system, hello, but the wonky details of making lives better and how to pay for them. But that is starting from where we are, and being optimistic, and so she isn't speaking to all the kicked. And they don't believe politicians can deliver, even if they believe she wants to (wait and see).

    Obama gave a speech on MLK day in 2008 on what he named the empathy deficit, and if anyone is surprised yon Hillary supporter moi remembers, it's because he nailed it, that's what we don't have and some less rich countries still have (time may be running out).

    We have turned into a sanctimonious and callous people, off-hand, they brought it on themselves way, libertarianism-creep.

    Yet none of us is immune to getting kicked in our own turn.

    So Bernie's people, who were spot on in feeling the anger of income inequality, because money buys respect, some anyway, still dished it out to those with different points of view. And the ultra rich aren't any happier, they feel unfairly blamed, and whine on about how they deserve their big share, yet there is only one opulent room a person can occupy at at time, one lobster at a time, one fine view.

    What is 'deserved' has become a big one, luck is a thing of the past. Take what you deserve is the cousin of personal responsibility, and may have sprung from Warner Erhard, who transformed himself from Jack Rosenberg and cashed in on shaming failures. Elizabeth Warren knows better. (we eat people)

    In American culture, and we are a consumer culture, what we have is what we are, American failures are sick and/or poor.

    But human doesn't work that way, money isn't real like that.

    So on that ladder, the frustrated kick down. Most of us are kicking, but we're all getting kicked.

    There is more to life than money does not mean the rich get to keep it with impunity, but making them share does not elevate their money.