Monday, September 26, 2016

David Plouffe: 100% Chance of Clinton Victory

David Plouffe, the longtime Democratic strategist behind Barack Obama's 2008 landslide and current informal adviser to the Clinton campaign, has a few words for anyone fretting about the day-to-day ups and downs of public polling. And he's clearly in the know.

Here are some highlights from his must-read interview with Greg Sargent of the Washington Post:
DAVID PLOUFFE: Some polls closely capture where the race stands. But they’re very incomplete. The Clinton campaign is doing large samples for modeling surveys of everybody on the voter file. So you have a very good understanding of how you believe 100 percent of the electorate will be allocated on election day.

When you look at how 100 percent of the vote is likely to be allocated in Florida, I get very optimistic….I can get Donald Trump to within two or three in Pennsylvania, but I can’t get him to a win number. The same is true in Virginia and Colorado. I know everybody goes crazy about the latest Cheetos poll, but I feel very confident about both New Hampshire and Florida. So that puts her over 300 [in the electoral college]. Trump has to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.
That's pretty confident-sounding. But there's more:
PLUM LINE: Why do you say you can’t get him there numerically in Pennsylvania?

PLOUFFE: In Pennsylvania, she’s going to come out of the southeastern part of the state — Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs — with a margin of probably 500,000. Could be more. There just aren’t enough votes in the rest of the state to make that up. This simple fact is why most smart Republicans will tell you: they can get Pennsylvania close, but in the electoral college, close doesn’t mean anything.

PLUM LINE: Colorado?

PLOUFFE: It’s a state where the Hispanic vote is of great importance. She’s probably going to win it by more than we did. There are a lot of college educated suburban swing voters who have swung between the parties through the years. The Denver suburbs, I think she’ll win them probably by more than we won them in 2012. The Latino margins she’ll rack up — and her over-performance with swing suburban women and even men — that’s why Colorado and Virginia are so tough for him.

PLUM LINE: Florida?

PLOUFFE: I think she’ll do well in the suburban I-4 corridor. I think she’ll do better with Cuban voters than we did. She’ll do very well with the Puerto Rican and Columbian vote. She might even over-perform us a little bit in the panhandle. My understanding is the campaign feels very confident about their own numbers.
But wait, there's even more!

On today's Morning Joe, Plouffe held firm on a "crazy" prediction:

Watch the full Morning Joe interview here.

The point of all this isn't "relax, Hillary's got this" but rather "Hillary wins if we volunteer, donate and vote". We need the base fired up and everyone running at full speed all the way through the final election day in order for the dream to become a reality.

In other words, as always, keep calm and Hillary on.


  1. this kind of data makes people more likely to vote for her, weirdly, people like to vote for the winner. Trump got over the top in their primary that way.

    and this is before this debate. I doubt Donald will debate her again, and she's best in these situations, don't forget the benghazi witch trials. She was sweet during it, until they were extra ridiculous, when she laughed at them.

    She likes this stuff, it's fun for her.

    1. Yep, whoever the public expects to win ends up winning. Bandwagon effect.

  2. I don't want people to get lackadaisical. She will 100% NOT WIN if we do! We must literally FIGHT every day to make sure she's our next president. We can't let anything slip through the cracks. No stone unturned. No voter uncontacted!