Morning Consult released a massive 50-state poll with some encouraging and interesting results this week:
Hillary Clinton would top Donald Trump 321-195 in electoral votes to clinch the White House if the election were held today, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of registered voters.Being up 321-195 is certainly great, but there are some weird results going on here:
But the 2016 presidential race is far from over. The leading candidate is within the margin of error in nine states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. When those states are removed from the count, the former secretary of State garners 258 electoral votes to the New York businessman’s 164.
The analysis is the third time Morning Consult has provided a complete look at the electoral college map. Voter sentiment has shifted in a number of key states since our last survey, which was released just before the political conventions. Our analysis also provides a snapshot into how Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein would affect the Electoral College count for Clinton and Trump.
The Democratic nominee sports small gains over Trump in Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The Republican standard bearer leads narrowly in Arizona, New Mexico and North Carolina.
Georgia and Iowa remain pure toss-ups, with both candidates deadlocked at 40 percent.
- Trump is winning New Mexico? The state went for Obama in a landslide twice and is not considered a swing state. I'm not buying it.
- Clinton is doing better in Ohio than Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania? Not sure about that either.
- Georgia is totally tied while Trump leads in North Carolina? Hmm.
On a slightly positive note, they have Trump ahead in Texas by only 6...matching a recent PPP poll and again suggesting that it's within reach if Donald collapses a bit more.
Bottom line: the polls vary and sometimes don't make a lot of sense, but Hillary Clinton remains in a much stronger electoral position than Donald Trump in the homestretch.
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