I know it went against the grain of "panic", but I really wasn't too worried upon seeing some of the rough polls last week. For one thing, not all of them were so bad. For another, some of the internals suggested a right-leaning electorate more in tune with 2004. For yet another, I just didn't believe that "deplorables" and a case of pneumonia were enough to alter the race significantly. And I still don't.
Today we have a new poll of all-important Pennsylvania (conducted during "Hillary's bad week") that finds Clinton leading Trump by nine points:
Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Republican Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.Independents are also rejecting Trump in the state:
The survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, shows Clinton leading the presidential race here with support from 47 percent of likely voters who say they intend to vote for her or are leaning that way. Trump is at 38 percent, while 11 percent say they'd pick neither of the major-party choices, and 4 percent are not sure.
Clinton's lead narrows slightly to 8 percent when third-party candidates are included, with 40 percent for her, 32 percent for Trump, 14 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and 5 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
A demographic breakdown shows Clinton holding a significant lead among women, college-educated voters, and those in the state's densely populated southeast.
"Those are all cornerstones of Pennsylvania electoral math, and right now, he's lagging in all of those areas," said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.
Independents lean toward Clinton, 42 percent to 33 percent, and one-quarter are undecided.Remember: If Hillary wins Pennsylvania along with the rest of the "blue wall", in addition to Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico (all deemed safe at this time), she only needs one more of these to reach 270: New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, Georgia, Arizona or Nebraska's 2nd District. That's right, Trump must run the table on each of these to win. That seems extremely doubtful, especially considering the last couple of days.
As evidence that this (A-rated) poll isn't an outlier, see the tweets below suggesting that Clinton is holding steady nationally...or perhaps even gaining slightly.
Clinton leads Trump as Americans shrug off her pneumonia scare: Reuters/Ipsos poll https://t.co/Dwq1Es45cO— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) September 16, 2016
From Gallup... Hmm... pic.twitter.com/I9XSZjcWR5— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 16, 2016
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