Saturday, September 17, 2016

BREAKING: Hillary Retains Big Lead in New Pennsylvania Poll

I know it went against the grain of "panic", but I really wasn't too worried upon seeing some of the rough polls last week. For one thing, not all of them were so bad. For another, some of the internals suggested a right-leaning electorate more in tune with 2004. For yet another, I just didn't believe that "deplorables" and a case of pneumonia were enough to alter the race significantly. And I still don't.

Today we have a new poll of all-important Pennsylvania (conducted during "Hillary's bad week") that finds Clinton leading Trump by nine points:
Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Republican Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.

The survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, shows Clinton leading the presidential race here with support from 47 percent of likely voters who say they intend to vote for her or are leaning that way. Trump is at 38 percent, while 11 percent say they'd pick neither of the major-party choices, and 4 percent are not sure.

Clinton's lead narrows slightly to 8 percent when third-party candidates are included, with 40 percent for her, 32 percent for Trump, 14 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and 5 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

A demographic breakdown shows Clinton holding a significant lead among women, college-educated voters, and those in the state's densely populated southeast.

"Those are all cornerstones of Pennsylvania electoral math, and right now, he's lagging in all of those areas," said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.
Independents are also rejecting Trump in the state:
Independents lean toward Clinton, 42 percent to 33 percent, and one-quarter are undecided.
Remember: If Hillary wins Pennsylvania along with the rest of the "blue wall", in addition to Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico (all deemed safe at this time), she only needs one more of these to reach 270: New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, Georgia, Arizona or Nebraska's 2nd District. That's right, Trump must run the table on each of these to win. That seems extremely doubtful, especially considering the last couple of days.

As evidence that this (A-rated) poll isn't an outlier, see the tweets below suggesting that Clinton is holding steady nationally...or perhaps even gaining slightly.

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  1. Actually it might end up a blessing in disguise for the polls to have tightened at this point. If we pull back out the story will be "Trump victory slipping away with each new poll!"

    1. That's true. The media sure love their "narratives"!

  2. I agree, desert, it is a get out the vote drive. And we want to win big, the 50-state thang. His racist stuff is getting worse too.

    I trust her to win this one, like I trusted her in '08 to stay until it was over because they were neck to neck, and even though we knew he would get it, it was still neck to neck and so her concession was real, it mattered. And then to campaign for Barack, she knew the stakes and knows the stakes. She's always great in the clinches, she'll never fold, it's why she's the only one who can break that ceiling, she has all the attributes necessary, which includes the most experience and the most brains and the most stamina. She's the one, the only one.

    They love Michelle more because she's not running for office. And Barack more because he's near the end of his term, but their high marks also apply to the one they are campaigning for. We are in this together, that's just true.

    it is and will be a world 1st, no other female world leader had to first run against men in her own party for the popular vote, before running for the top job. it's our democracy that made it so much harder for a woman to get to the top. And why it's so much sweeter.

    1. I'm trying to imagine what it will feel like at 11pm ET on November 8th when the west coast comes in. The final end of this craziness, with Hillary as the next president? I just can't...

    2. As a 66-year old woman, my feelings would be indescribable to see this actually come to pass. It is almost impossible for me to believe that this subhuman POS, Trump, could actually even be running neck-and-neck to her. He doesn't even deserve to be on the same debate stage as she. He is a national disgrace, and must be defeated, and defeated soundly!