Tuesday, August 9, 2016

State of the Race: 91 Days To Go

We're approaching two weeks since the end of the amazing Democratic convention, and as of now it appears that Hillary's lead is still growing. This is starting to feel less like a temporary bump and more like the new normal. Much of this has to be attributed to Trump's ongoing implosion, which is leading to a consensus view that Clinton is the only sane choice to be the next president. But Hillary has also been running an effective campaign with a robust ground game and large ad budget across the country, while Donald...hasn't.

To really know where things are headed right now, just look at the expanding battlegrounds:
Representatives of Hillary Clinton’s campaign phoned state Democratic leaders in Arizona and Georgia on Monday night to alert them of plans to begin transferring funds to hire more field organizers in those states, according to several Democratic officials familiar with the calls.

Polls in both states — which Republican nominee Mitt Romney carried in 2012 — show a tightening race between Clinton and Donald Trump. The move by the Clinton campaign suggests a bid to expand the number of battleground states in play in November.

It was not immediately clear how great of an investment the Clinton campaign plans to make in Arizona and Georgia, where funds will flow to coordinated campaigns with the state parties. If nothing else, an additional investment in the two states could force Trump to spend more money and time in places he needs to win to achieve a path to victory. And the money could also help promote down-ballot candidates in Arizona and Georgia.
With Pennsylvania apparently not going anywhere, Virginia and Colorado transitioning into "safe blue" territory, Clinton leading by about 10 nationally, and Republican defections coming fast and furious, it's time to start asking...how can Trump turn this around? 

Honestly, it's hard to see how.

This isn't about complacency, it's about confidently going for a historic crushing landslide while we have the opportunity. And if anything, I think even more battleground states will emerge over the next several weeks. Keep an eye on Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, Arkansas, Utah and...yes, even Texas.

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