Tuesday, August 16, 2016

State of the Race: 84 Days To Go

Let me be perfectly honest with you for a second. What I'm about to say isn't complacency or overconfidence, it's just the truth as it stands 84 days before the election. And let me make clear that this is the opinion of an independent blogger who is not affiliated with the Clinton campaign. Are you ready? Okay, here's what's going on right now.

Hillary Clinton is clearly in the driver's seat and her chances for victory look extremely good right now. More than two weeks after the end of the Democratic National Convention, her national polling bump has shown no signs of fading. And most crucially of all, her numbers in several swing states are so strong that they can barely be counted as swing states anymore.

If the election were held today, Clinton would definitely win more than 270 electoral votes. All she has to do is defend her comfortable lead in these states and she will win the presidency on November 8th.
Of course, she's not settling for mere defense. Not even close.

That awesome map was from yesterday, but today we got a new poll (from Monmouth, A+ pollster) that suggests that it might actually too kind to Trump!
Hillary Clinton holds a 9 point lead over Donald Trump in the crucial swing state of Florida...

Among Sunshine State voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 39% back Trump. Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with 5% who are undecided.

Among self-identified Democrats, 92% support Clinton while 4% choose Trump and just 3% back a third party candidate. Trump has less support among his own party base, with 79% of Republicans who back their nominee, compared to 12% who support Clinton and 5% who back another candidate. Clinton leads Trump among independents by 47% to 30%, with 11% supporting Johnson and 2% backing Stein.

Clinton has an overwhelming lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters who make up about one-third of the electorate, garnering 69% of this group’s vote to 19% for Trump. Trump leads among white voters by 51% to 37%, but there is a significant gender split. Among white men, Trump has a 64% to 24% advantage. Among white women, Clinton leads by 49% to 39%. There is no difference by educational attainment, with Trump ahead among white voters without a college degree (51% to 39%) as well as white college graduates (50% to 36%).
So Clinton is near 50% in Florida, with much-firmer party support and only 5% undecided. That's pretty amazing. Hillary has held a small lead there for a while, but if more polls show a high single-digit or even double digit lead for her, Florida will become as inaccessible for Trump as Colorado or Virginia. If that happens, look out: We're definitely on our way to a huge landslide.

Can Trump turn this around enough to actually win? It seems highly unlikely, because a major reason for his collapse is due to the (accurate) perception that he is totally unqualified and temperamentally unfit to hold the office. That's a very hard obstacle to overcome, especially when all of his awfulness can't be erased and will be seen in attack ads from now until election day.

But that day is still 12 weeks away...and yes, anything can happen. By next week's edition of this series, the dynamics of the race may shift in Trump's favor slightly. You just never know.

However, right now we're winning big and there's no reason to ignore the facts. To quote Joe Biden, "we own the finish line". It's not about complacency, it's about having the confidence and dedication to make something amazing happen.

In other words, let's not merely win...let's create a historic landslide that brings the Senate and House along with us. Let's win Georgia & Arizona...and Missouri & Utah...and South Carolina & Texas. Let's bring Democrats, Independents and Republicans over to the winning team of Clinton and Kaine to create a brighter and more cooperative future for us all.

Yes, it can be done...so let's do it!

1 comment:

  1. and it isn't today, so it will get better and better. Trump is our 50-state strategy, and it's working. Texas, of course, the Bush's don't want Trump and Trump is also our Hispanic voter registration drive.

    My favorite is Georgia, when Georgia flips that will change the mood of the electorate.

    And four years of cheerful competence will bring good stuff, she'll make good stuff happen.