Tuesday, August 23, 2016

State of the Race: 77 Days To Go

Photo courtesy HFA
We are now just two weeks from the official start of the "home stretch" of 2016, which begins the day after Labor Day! For the past week, Donald has been pivoting himself into dizziness and further incoherence while Hillary has largely been raising money. A lot of money.

And the polls? As for the national outlook, see for yourself:

Chart via RealClearPolitics
Only very slight tightening since the bottom fell out from under Trump at the beginning of the month. This is also reflected in today's polls by NBC/SurveyMonkey (Clinton +8) and Red Oak (Clinton +10).

But as we all know, it's the state polls that really matter...and today we got a real doozy:
Hillary Clinton has blown open a 16-point lead over Donald Trump in Virginia, according to the results of the latest Roanoke College poll of likely voters in the battleground state out Tuesday.

Matched against Trump and the other two major third-party candidates, Clinton earned 48 percent support to the Republican nominee's 32 percent. Another 8 percent said they would vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, while Jill Stein of the Green Party took 3 percent, with another 9 percent undecided. In a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Trump by 19 points—55 percent to 36 percent.
As amazing as this poll is, it's only a slightly better result for Hillary than we've been seeing in other Virginia polls this month. With Colorado moving to safe territory, Pennsylvania also looking strong, and even Ohio tilting Hillary's way, there is every indication that Hillary's lead is as solid and stable as ever.

Then there's this brand new "red state" poll from Monmouth taken over just the past few days:
That kinda tells you all you need to know about the state of the race right there.

For further encouraging analysis, read what Sam Wang has to say over at the Princeton Election Consortium.

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