Tuesday, August 30, 2016

State of the Race: 70 Days To Go

Photo courtesy Hillary for America
A week from today, the homestretch of the 2016 will officially begin. And as August winds down, the difference between both candidates' strategies is pretty stark.

Hillary Clinton has mostly been very busy raising a ton of money (while still taking the time to deliver a widely-praised speech on the "alt-right") as Tim Kaine tours the swing states in rally after rally. I think most people would consider this a smart and solid post-convention strategy.

Meanwhile, Trump has been shamelessly flip-flopping on his signature issue, pandering to minorities in the most offensive way possible, pushing insane conspiracies about his opponent and having rallies in Texas, Mississippi and Washington. To put it as kindly as humanly possible, this is an interesting strategy.

But because the press has decided it's time to once again pile on more phony Clinton "scandals", this is what the summer trend looks like:


Clinton is still strong right now...almost as strong as ever...but Trump seems to have gained a tiny bit nationally. However, such incremental gains hardly matter when Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire are off the table as Hillary keeps a solid lead in Pennsylvania and ties it up in South Carolina. In other words, Clinton is still solidly over 270 electoral votes and threatening a landslide.

And there's little indication that these fundamentals are changing much, especially when you see staggering and unprecedented poll numbers like these:
I'm gonna take a wild guess and say that Trump's Hispanic outreach will be is as successful as his African American outreach.

Get ready: The next installment of this series arrives right after Labor Day weekend...and at that point the fun really begins!

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