Saturday, August 27, 2016

Sabato: Democrats Could Retake the Senate AND House This Fall

Madam Speaker...Part 2?
Could it be? Could it really happen?

Could the Blue Wave of 2016 sweep in not only a Hillary Clinton presidency and Democratic Senate... but a Democratic House as well?

Famed political scientist/analyst Larry Sabato's site thinks so...but just barely:
Based on seven House Democratic seats being rated as only leaning to the Democrats, toss-ups, or tipped toward going to the Republicans, and 33 House Republican seats being rated as only leaning to the Republicans, toss-ups, or tipped toward going to the Democrats — a net of 26 more Republican than Democratic seats-in-trouble — the model predicts that Democrats will gain 32 House seats in November. This would bring the number of House Democrats up to 220 members, two seats more than required for a bare majority. The forecast was made on Aug. 18, 2016.

Based on one Senate Democratic seat being rated as a toss-up or tipped toward the Republicans and eight Senate Republican seats being rated as toss-ups or tipped toward the Democrats — a net of seven more Republican than Democratic seats-in-trouble — the model predicts that Democrats will gain seven Senate seats. This would bring the number of Senate Democrats (including two Independents who caucus with Democrats) up to 53 seats, a majority. The forecast was made on Aug. 19, 2016.
This is an exciting development, but keep in mind there are numerous wild cards in play that could easily alter this prediction either way.

For instance, it's possible that Trump could turn the American people against the Republicans in general and cause the House to flip with more of a cushion. It's possible that a much-superior Democratic ground game could do the same or create an even bigger cushion. Conversely, it's also possible that the RNC will turn away from Trump completely and devote enough resources to barely keep the House. Or maybe the gerrymandering alone will be enough for them to hold on. Hard to say at this point.

Obviously, a Hillary Clinton presidency with the help of a Democratic Senate will do a world of good for our country. But with a Democratic House thrown in? That could be downright revolutionary. In other words...something might actually get done!

As we enter the post-Labor Day homestretch, Hillary HQ will be focusing more on winning both houses of Congress along with the presidency. Special attention will be paid to key Senate races in states like Florida, New Hampshire. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio and Minnesota. Keeping track of 435 House races will be next to impossible, but I'll do my best to keep up with predictions and a few interesting races that could tip the scale.

Onward to total victory!


  1. it could, he is our 50 state strategy, although Cruz would have done the same.

    the case for Republicans to vote for her is competence, and they're saying so, they don't like her progressive policies, but they think they can win in four years based on that part, and that she'll leave it nice and clean and well polished.

    They are counting on her making each department organized and evidence based, and that she'll make the department heads writes their manuels so if they leave the next one can do it too, and so when they put in their dream-hacks those hacks will start in the right place.

    And she will. She doesn't do academic sabotage and she thinks being really good at the job will get her reelected.

    Our so-called side is dissing her for it, OMG what is her mandate if she gets voters for competence who have to unwillingly accept the progressive policies that go with the competence, once elected won't she have to go all incompetent and skip progressive, what a disaster!!

    When there is nothing real that's bad to say, they have to dig strange.

  2. addendum: It's a case of high tech phrenology?