Clinton now leads by 7 points nationally in the new poll by Monmouth University, and here is a key section to note:
Clinton has the support of 85% of Democrats, a slight drop from the 92% support she had a few weeks ago. Trump gets the backing of 78% of Republicans, which is virtually unchanged from 79% earlier this month. Independents remain divided, although they now give slightly more support to Clinton (37%) than to Trump (32%). In prior Monmouth polls, Trump had the nominal advantage among independents, including a slim 32% to 30% edge in early August.The margin in a four-way race is also 7 points (46%-39%), and Trump's habit of hanging around the upper 30s/lower 40s is one of the biggest reasons to think he's already doomed.
"The margin has narrowed since her post-convention bounce, but Clinton is holding onto an underlying advantage over Trump among key voting blocs," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Also interesting: Clinton was ahead by a wider margin in the last Monmouth poll while running behind with indys. This time she's ahead by less overall but leading with indys by 5 points. That's counter-intuitive until you realize that the Democrats had a +9 edge in last month's poll and a +4 edge this time.
The equation is pretty simple, really. If Clinton hangs onto her party faithful better than Trump, maintains a narrow lead with indys, and gets Democratic turnout to at least match that of 2012, she'll win by a landslide margin of 8-10 points or so.
And that's exactly where things are heading at this point.