Monday, August 29, 2016

Monmouth National Poll: Clinton 49% Trump 42%


Clinton now leads by 7 points nationally in the new poll by Monmouth University, and here is a key section to note:
Clinton has the support of 85% of Democrats, a slight drop from the 92% support she had a few weeks ago. Trump gets the backing of 78% of Republicans, which is virtually unchanged from 79% earlier this month. Independents remain divided, although they now give slightly more support to Clinton (37%) than to Trump (32%). In prior Monmouth polls, Trump had the nominal advantage among independents, including a slim 32% to 30% edge in early August.

"The margin has narrowed since her post-convention bounce, but Clinton is holding onto an underlying advantage over Trump among key voting blocs," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The margin in a four-way race is also 7 points (46%-39%), and Trump's habit of hanging around the upper 30s/lower 40s is one of the biggest reasons to think he's already doomed. 

Also interesting: Clinton was ahead by a wider margin in the last Monmouth poll while running behind with indys. This time she's ahead by less overall but leading with indys by 5 points. That's counter-intuitive until you realize that the Democrats had a +9 edge in last month's poll and a +4 edge this time. 

The equation is pretty simple, really. If Clinton hangs onto her party faithful better than Trump, maintains a narrow lead with indys, and gets Democratic turnout to at least match that of 2012, she'll win by a landslide margin of 8-10 points or so. 

And that's exactly where things are heading at this point.

1 comment:

  1. she's working the states and boosting the down-ticket candidates, working for the party more than her own candidacy, and if Donald debates, I still think he'll wuss out at the last minute, he'll have to wash his hairpiece or something, that's when her numbers will rise higher. High enough now, but they'll get higher.

    I think Kelleyanne wants him to debate and so she's pretending he isn't so far behind and isn't vulnerable to most any question.

    I find it amusing that the claim is it will be hard to find someone to play trump in mock debates.

    She'll use the real trump, there is a long and vast record of Trump in public, and just entering lots of three-minute cuts and putting the program on 'random' will provide Trump his-self. and be fun.

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