Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Moderate Voters Are Okay with Clinton...and Absolutely Loathe Trump

We keep hearing over and over again how "historically unpopular" both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are, but this extremely simple analysis doesn't come close to explaining what's actually going on.

Simply put, Clinton may be underwater but Trump is practically sitting at the bottom of the lake with the catfish. And if we look at poll internals, we can see why this will doom him in November.

PPP's new national poll tells the similar story of a steady 5-point lead for Clinton with low favorability numbers for both candidates. But check out the Clinton favorability breakdown by ideology on page 19:

Overall, Clinton is 11 points underwater in favorability. Her numbers with the liberal base are okay (maybe the debates will improve them) and she actually has a slight edge with moderates. The vast majority of her negatives come from conservatives, though the 17% favorable among somewhat conservative voters could be worse.

Now let's look at Trump:

Overall, Trump is 27 points underwater in favorability. He's hated equally among very and somewhat liberal voters alike, which isn't a shock at all. Somewhat conservative voters only give him a moderate thumbs-up, which isn't too surprising. What is striking, though, is the abysmal result among moderates, where he's dead in the water by an incredible margin of -44! 

Seriously, how in the world can any candidate win with numbers like these? Just pathetic.

Because it's the established media narrative, we're going to keep hearing about how unpopular both candidates are until election day. But it will hardly matter in the end. Moderate voters are okay with Clinton but absolutely loathe Trump as this endless and exhausting election season reaches its finale.

This is a recipe for a potential electoral wipeout.

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