Monday, August 8, 2016

LANDSLIDE ALERT: Clinton Leads Trump in Georgia!

It's no longer a matter of "hey, maybe Hillary could win Georgia" but "whoa, I think Hillary is going to win Georgia!". Two recent polls have shown a tie and 3-point lead for Clinton there, but today's poll showing her ahead by seven really kicks it up a notch.
Polls conducted since the Democratic convention have showed some movement towards Hillary Clinton, and this poll has shown similar movement: Clinton has a seven point (44-37%) lead over Trump, while 7% favor Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% favor Green Jill Stein, and 10% are undecided. While robust black support (84-6% over Trump) helps Clinton, she’s also pulling 25% of the white vote, while Johnson gets another 10%, and Trump can only get 52%. From a geographic standpoint, only the (nearly all white) counties in the Chattanooga TN and Greenville SC media markets are showing much affinity for Trump. It also helps Clinton that there is a 14-point gender gap: men favor Trump 41-40%, while women favor Clinton 48-35%.
What's also interesting about this poll was that it was conducted over the weekend, after Trump's post-DNC week-long meltdown and another round of media obsession over Clinton's emails. We'll need to see some additional polls, of course, but this suggests that Clinton's bump is still going strong and that everyone is sick and tired of hearing about her damn emails.

And what does Nate Silver think of her chances there if the election were held today?

(updated 4:30pm ET)
With Virginia and Colorado transitioning into safer territory, the time has come to go all-in to expand the map. So how about a nice big Atlanta rally next week, Hillary?

1 comment:

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