Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Hillary News & Views 08.10.16: Florida, Texas, the "Convention Bounce" Persists

Hillary Clinton with Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, at the latter's campaign office in Davie, FL, Aug. 9, 2016

Guest post by rugbymom

Like the Clinton campaign, I’d like to keep the focus of this diary on “offense” (promoting the Clinton-Kaine message) rather than on “defense” (reacting to the latest outrage from The Outrage Generator). The front page and Recent Diaries list are full of “defense” diaries, if you want to read about them and make outraged comments on them. You may want to consider whether that is good for your blood pressure and your psychological well-being, and the best use of your time.      
Hillary herself was in Miami yesterday for two fundraisers and two public appearances. At the Borinquen Medical Center that has diagnosed 21 non-travel related cases of Zika. she repeated Tim Kaine’s call during his FL visit last week that Congress return early from the summer recess to take emergency action  to fund a Federal response to Zika:
She also stopped in at the Broward County campaign office of Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz to support her long-time friend’s re-election bid:
Clinton formally endorsed Wasserman Schultz, who faces her first primary challenger in 24 years in Tim Canova, a political novice backed by Clinton’s former rival, Bernie Sanders.
I have to have her in Congress, by my side, working day after day,” Clinton told diehard Wasserman Schultz supporters packed in the strip-mall campaign office. She hugged the Weston congresswoman and kissed her on the cheek — and told activists to give Wasserman Schultz a victory in the Aug. 30 Florida congressional primary.
I really respect Debbie’s fighting spirit,” added Clinton. She also touted Wasserman Schultz’s budget-committee role in Congress — a senior position Canova wouldn’t immediately be able to fill . . . .
Tim Kaine was in Texas yesterday, also for a combination of fund-raising and organizing. He had one fund-raiser yesterday in Austin, and has two more scheduled in Dallas-Fort Worth today and tomorrow. He also spoke at an organizing event for volunteers in Austin, TX, yesterday afternoon, and our own Scan was there:
Has Texas been in play for Democrats since 1964 (LBJ)? Dare we even imagine it?
A number of new polls came out late yesterday, confirming the overall theme: Clinton continues a steady, though gradual, increase in her margin over Trump, or in some places a decrease in Trump's margin over her. First, NBC/Survey Monkey’s national tracking poll came in at 51-41, a 10-point lead, up from 8 last week. Second, a new Public Policy poll showed Clinton up 43-41 (7-2) in  North Carolina; diary here.  Then in Missouri, Remington Research showed Clinton trailing by only 2 points (44-42). Finally, late yesterday afternoon, NBC/WSJ/Marist released new poll results for IA, OH, and PA, all key must-win states for Trump and highly desirable for Clinton. El Mito has a fuller discussion, but here’s the summary:

New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls:

IA: Clinton 41, Trump 37 (+4)
OH: Clinton 43, Trump 38 (+5)
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 37 (+11)

Aug 3-7
Hillary is doing a rally today in Des Moines, so the campaign clearly thinks IA is in play.
What do all those polls add up to? If you’re a pessimist or have been burned too many times, “cautious optimism” may be in order. On the other hand, even mainstream publications are starting to use headlines like “Landslide looming?” and Vox refers to a possible Trump “death spiral.” Nate Silver at is more cautious:
Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states.
Still, Clinton doesn’t quite have a firewall of 270 electoral votes. If Trump makes a big comeback, her Electoral College position is decent but not great. Including Pennsylvania, Clinton has 269 electoral votes in states where our polls-only model projects her to win by more than 8 percentage points. . . .So Clinton needs one more state, of any size, in this firewall scenario. . . .
Overall, Clinton’s position is strong and may still be improving. Instead of seeing her convention bounce fade, she’s holding onto or evenimproving her lead over Trump in a variety of national polls.
Scan has also written an interesting analysis of the state of the race, three months before the election:
We're approaching two weeks since the end of the amazing Democratic convention, and as of now it appears that Hillary's lead is still growing.This is starting to feel less like a temporary bump and more like the new normal. Much of this has to be attributed to Trump's ongoing implosion, which is leading to a consensus view that Clinton is the only sane choice to be the next president. But Hillary has also been running an effective campaign with a robust ground game and large ad budget across the country, while Donald...hasn't.
After quoting from the Washington Post article on Clinton expanding the battleground into AZ and GA, Scan goes on:
With Pennsylvania apparently not going anywhere, Virginia and Colorado transitioning into "safe blue" territory, Clinton leading by about 10 nationally, and Republican defections coming fast and furious, it's time to start can Trump turn this around? 
* * * * *
This isn't about complacency, it's about confidently going for a historic crushing landslide while we have the opportunity. And if anything, I think even more battleground states will emerge over the next several weeks. Keep an eye on Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, Arkansas, Utah and...yes, even Texas.
And remember that all these poll results depend on us continuing to do our work, as the campaign continues to do its work. Money still matters, volunteering still matters, conversations with our friends and family and co-workers still matter, voter registration still matters, GOTV still matters a lot.
I’m in the midst of a busy week with other commitments this morning and won’t be able to hang out in the comments with you all — so please talk (civilly) among yourselves.

(originally posted at Daily Kos)

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