Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Electoral College Prediction Time!

I've been anticipating this series ever since Hillary HQ began a year and a half ago...and with the conventions over and just about three months to go, we might as well kick it off now!

Here is my initial prediction on what the electoral map will look like after all the votes are counted:

Via 270toWin.com
Today I'm predicting that Hillary Clinton will win all of the states that Barack Obama won in 2008, minus Indiana but plus Arizona and Georgia in squeakers due to a superior ground game. This also includes Nebraska's 2nd, where Hillary campaigned this week.

I believe this is only a slightly optimistic appraisal. If I was being more optimistic, I would have included Indiana (which is on Priority USA's radar) and Missouri (which showed Clinton up by 1 in a pre-DNC poll) in the blue column. And if I was much more optimistic, I would have included Texas, Arkansas, Utah, Montana, Louisiana, Kentucky and South Carolina. Trump will need to collapse even further for me to truly consider these as possibilities, though.

None of this should be confused with complacency. Rather, let's get excited about this potential map and work every day to make it a reality in November! I'll keep an eye on the polls as always and present updated predictions every few weeks or so.

Do you agree with this prediction? If not, create your own map at 270toWin.com and share the link in the comments below!

7 comments:

  1. #ivote hillary clinton for U.S President #clintonkaine we are bless in this new month of #august2016 go & wins #HillaryClintonForPresident #HillaryForAmerica

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm looking at Missouri and Utah but not Indiana... either way its a blow out EC vote. I think it will be a 4-5% total vote margin... 48- 43...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I say 7% margin...but yeah, electoral blowout.

      Delete
  3. Could you give us your qualifications for predicting the electoral result this year, Scott?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Education in Political Science required? Do we need to show our Birth Certificate, Insurance card, License and High School Diploma? Or does a general interest in the campaign from politicos suffice. Because , I didnt see any pre-qualifiers. However I do know that our current President is a attorney and a Constitution Professor....Not Required, but eh... Some people running for President might find the Constitution helpful. Having to defend it and all that pesky stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Great! Well thought out prediction, Scott. I might steal it for some of my real world political discussions.

    ReplyDelete