Question: What happens when the worst convention of all time is quickly followed by the greatest convention of all time and topped off with an insanely disastrous week for one of the candidates?
Hillary Clinton has taken a double digit lead over Donald Trump according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. This compares to the slim two point lead she held among likely voters just before the two major parties held their conventions...We've seen plenty of recent polls showing Clinton with a big lead, but this one is interesting because it was mostly taken more than a week after the end of the Democratic convention and right in the middle of another round of email nonsense. But like today's Georgia poll, it nonetheless shows Hillary in a stronger position than ever. This suggests that Trump has done himself massive and perhaps permanent damage in the wake of the conventions as Clinton has simultaneously emerged as the only sane choice.
Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Support among likely voters stands at 50% Clinton, 37% Trump, 7% Johnson, and 2% Stein. In a poll taken days before the Republican convention in mid-July, Clinton held a narrow 43% to 40% lead among registered voters and a 45% to 43% lead among likely voters.
Clinton has solidified support among her partisan base since the conventions while Trump struggles to lock in his. More than 9-in-10 Democrats (92%) say they will vote for Clinton, up from 88% in July and 85% in June. Just 79% of Republicans are backing Trump, which is virtually unchanged from prior polls (81% in July and 79% in June).
Over the next few weeks, we'll get a better idea if this is just a temporary 10-point bump or the new normal until election day. But I'm believing more and more that it's the latter.
Also, check out these internals which paint an incredibly dire picture for Donald:
Why was Monmouth a big deal?— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 8, 2016
- Very recent
- Likely voter screen helped Clinton (unusual for a Dem)
- Highly-rated pollster
- Clinton at 50%
Latest Trump margin with white voters: 52% (WaPo) and 43% (Monmouth).— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) August 8, 2016
Romney won 59% and it wasn’t enough.
Why is Trump down 50-37 in new Monmouth poll? White women with college degrees: Romney WON them by 6 point margin. Trump is LOSING by 30.— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) August 8, 2016
I'm just not seeing how he turns this around in time to actually win...and rest assured, we're not going to let him.