Tuesday, July 12, 2016

State of the Race: 119 Days To Go

As the Democratic race truly concluded on Tuesday morning and we're still waiting on running mate news from both sides, I'll keep this installment brief and stick to head-to-head polling between Clinton and Trump.

Last Wednesday, I wrote this:
A couple of weeks ago, Clinton led in this poll by 13 points. Today, she leads by 13 points. And in case you're wondering, the last few days of this poll was taken during the nothingburger Bill/Loretta tarmac "scandal". It will be interesting to see the national polls a week from now, but my guess is that there won't be much difference then either.
And lo and behold, Hillary still leads by 13 points in this poll even after all that business with FBI. Hey, maybe I'm kinda good at this!

Otherwise, it seems like polls have been all over the map the past few days: Hillary's up big with Pew and Democracy Corps, barely ahead with Survey Monkey and Morning Consult, and slightly behind according to Rasmussen (hah!). Then there were the ones today that had her slightly behind in Iowa but well ahead in Colorado. In confusing situations like these, it's best to just ask Nate:
Steady polling over the past two weeks...all before Bernie got on board? Sounds good to me!


  1. The problem with polls in general is that they depend on past data to be made properly "representative". For example, they might throw out some poll respondents to create the same Dem/Rep proportion that voted in 2008. Over time that proportion will change, and this time it might change substantially. Considering all the factors, I'm confident that most of the changes this cycle will be in our favor.

    1. Yeah, it would not surprise me if the electorate is +9 Dem this year. How can Trump win, if so?