Tuesday, July 19, 2016

State of the Race: 112 Days To Go

The conventions have just started, so I'm not entirely sure that this is the ideal time to get a good read on the "state of the race". Early-mid August is really when we should be taking stock of the situation. However, skipping an installment of a weekly series doesn't sound right to me either...so let's have a chart day!

According to HuffPost, the national polls have tightened a bit since the beginning of July but have pretty much leveled out by now:

Similarly, at RCP:

Even with some terrific state poll numbers recently, 538 is more bullish on Trump's current chances than I would expect. I just really don't believe that Donald has a greater than 1/3 chance to win. I also think that certain lousy pollsters (*cough* Quinnipiac) are skewing this prediction a bit right now, but hey...it's Nate Silver so here you go:

NYT's Upshot has a great interactive graphic that shows how many more paths to victory that Clinton has, and the importance of Florida. Essentially, if she wins there it's pretty much over. They are currently giving Clinton a 76% chance of victory:

And as NYT's statistician notes:
Finally, don't forget last week's terrific polls:

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