Monday, July 25, 2016

State of the Race: 106 Days To Go

Barney Frank addresses #DemsInPhilly (photo by Scott Hopkins)
by Scott Hopkins, reporting from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia

That's right: This week's edition of State of the Race is coming to you live from inside the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia on the first day of the Democratic National Convention!

However, today is actually just about the worst day to get a grip on the state of the race, because #RNCinCLE has been over for just a few days and #DNCinPHL has just begun. A week or so after the Democratic convention is the next time we should really take stock of the race in a meaningful way.

That said, did Trump gain anything last week? Some polls say yes, and some say no.

There's been a lot of talk about the new CNN poll showing an oddly massive bump for Trump, but there's something odd in the internals:
How can a bump occur when his speech didn't go over well and the whole thing made people less likely to vote for him? Beats me. Never heard of such a thing.

Then there's this poll, which actually shows a post-convention dip for Donald:

My gut says "no actual bump" (because #RNCinCLE was a disaster and Trump's speech was awful and terrifying) but let's see what happens in a week or two. Heck, maybe this just means that Hillary's post-convention bump will appear extra yuuuuge.

For real-time updates from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, follow Hillary HQ on Twitter tonight and all this week!

1 comment:

  1. that makes sense, the faux bump.

    I thought no speech could be better than Booker, and then comes Michelle. I had been telling my partner, they're friends, Michelle only invites friends to her birthday parties, and finally he believed me. It's because she got to know Hillary and she's flexible, she got it, it took her only a little longer than it took Barack, who'd met her on the debate stage.

    I love Michelle, she met Barack when he was working for her, and she did the first sacrifice, she stayed in the background and did first lady stuff, and she is just as smart as Hillary, it's why they're friends. Not just they see things eye to eye.

    I was so happy tonight, hearing nice things about Hillary for a change, I am so so so so sick of hearing nasty stuff about her, that is fact challenged and just mean, none of them think about women like me, her age, waiting so long, and it taking someone as superior and never stays down as Hillary to stick it out, the very best we have, it had to take that, and I have to listen to crap about her too, from so-called liberals.

    I admit it, I cried, with Booker, with Michelle, and I am grateful to Sarah Silverman for saying what she said..

    So selfish those booers of Hillary, and Bernie, whatever bernie, will let them call his name and let them riot before my girl accepts the nomination I have waited 50+ years for, since I was 17 and volunteered at the convention in Atlantic City, and asked, and heard the promise, once someone viable.

    bernie isn't in our party, he didn't promise, but he's human, and he did that to me, I hate him for that that I have to hear his name and his supporters riot against my girl, on my night.