|Barney Frank addresses #DemsInPhilly (photo by Scott Hopkins)|
That's right: This week's edition of State of the Race is coming to you live from inside the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia on the first day of the Democratic National Convention!
However, today is actually just about the worst day to get a grip on the state of the race, because #RNCinCLE has been over for just a few days and #DNCinPHL has just begun. A week or so after the Democratic convention is the next time we should really take stock of the race in a meaningful way.
That said, did Trump gain anything last week? Some polls say yes, and some say no.
There's been a lot of talk about the new CNN poll showing an oddly massive bump for Trump, but there's something odd in the internals:
How can a bump occur when his speech didn't go over well and the whole thing made people less likely to vote for him? Beats me. Never heard of such a thing.CNN poll: Voters didn't care for Trump's speech & RNC made them LESS likely to vote R (pgs 15-16). "Bump" in doubt. https://t.co/sypbBaCnXo— Hillary HQ (@Hillary_HQ) July 25, 2016
Then there's this poll, which actually shows a post-convention dip for Donald:
New @YouGovUS/@TheEconomist poll: Hillary 47% Trump 42% https://t.co/IpjDqku7Mr pic.twitter.com/1tbzVg8rPx— Mark Elliott (@markmobility) July 25, 2016
My gut says "no actual bump" (because #RNCinCLE was a disaster and Trump's speech was awful and terrifying) but let's see what happens in a week or two. Heck, maybe this just means that Hillary's post-convention bump will appear extra yuuuuge.
For real-time updates from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, follow Hillary HQ on Twitter tonight and all this week!