Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Quinnipi-who? Clinton Leads in New CO, PA, VA, IA and WI Polls


Announcement: I've finally, officially had it with Quinnipiac and their media-baiting outlier "shock polls". Even if they put out a poll with a good result for Hillary in the future (it does occasionally happen), I'm going to pay them very little mind. And here's the final straw:
For more, read my takedown from two months ago which still holds completely true today:
Do Yourself a Favor and Ignore Quinnipiac's Lousy "Shock Polls".

Luckily, we don't need them. First off, look at this chart of Colorado polls via 538. Three of these were taken in the last week and show Clinton with a sizable lead:

One of these things is not like the other. Can you spot it? Yep, Quinnipiac of course.

Today's polls by Fox News and Monmouth both show her up by double digits in Colorado, and both of them were taken well after the FBI/Lynch business concluded and during the time when Sanders endorsed Clinton. Are we already seeing another scandal fade and the beginning of another polling bump for Hillary? Maybe...stay tuned!

Fox News also showed Hillary leading by 7 in Virginia, which sounds just about right.

Quinnipiac also (laughably, in my opinion) showed Clinton losing by a few points in Pennsylvania only to be severely contradicted by NBC/WSJ/Marist a few hours later, who show her winning by 9.

Smaller leads were shown for Clinton in Wisconsin by Marquette (+4) and by Marist in Iowa (+3), who also found a tie in Ohio. These polls were all taken before the Sanders endorsement, so take that for what it's worth.

It's hard to see how Trump wins without Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida. In fact, it's close to impossible...and quality non-Quinnipiac polls are showing that Clinton is looking good in all four. Whatever the case, don't get worried by occasional outliers and don't get complacent because of apparently comfy margins.

Or as Brian from the Clinton camp tells us:

1 comment:

  1. What they miss is how anyone normal can identify with making tech mistakes (even though I fail to see that she made any mistakes at all, other than being female and having power) and how that 'issue' has no relation at all to what it going wrong in their lives. It's those so-called elites that deny their own imperfections and have time to go cluck cluck.

    it's the media narrative to beat up on her, citing the lower polls is the media's 'bussing.'

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