Friday, June 3, 2016

What's Up With California's Crazy Polls?

Hey look...Hillary is up by 18 points in California!

Oops, wait a sec...make that 2 points.

Scratch that...she's really up by 10!

Nevermind...it's actually just 1 point.

What does all this mean? I wish I knew. These fluctuations are legitimately weird, especially since the polls were pretty much taken at the same time.

Normally I'd be very interested in diving into the data to try to figure out which polls might be better than others and what kind of boost that Clinton will get because of California's robust and weeks-long early voting system. However, it hardly seems worth it at this point...and Nate Cohn sums up my feelings nicely:
All three of these thoughts are true. Then there's the odds from 538:

Hillary Clinton has a 92% chance of winning the California primary.

The time to worry about polls is over. The time to vote is at hand.

We'll know who the nominee will be at 8pm ET on June 7th, and that historic news (along with the accompanying speech) will dominate the entire evening. But we still have work to do! Though it's not technically necessary, the final piece of news that evening really should be Hillary's victory in the biggest state of the union.

Obviously, if you live in California...VOTE! And remind all your friends and family to do the same. But if you've already done so or live out of state, learn what else you can do to help at our Hillary Volunteering Roundup!

No comments:

Post a Comment