Wednesday, June 22, 2016

State of the Race: 139 Days To Go

Smile on.
Trump Trainwreck: Did anyone watch Donald's big Hillary-bashing speech today? 

I did, unfortunately...
In the first five minutes or so, it almost seemed like he'd halfway gotten his act together enough to not embarrass himself. But of course, that didn't last. It soon became apparent that this would be yet another rambling LOL-apalooza filled with far too many outright lies and laughable conspiracy theories to even begin to count. Astonishingly, he even threw "Hillary should go to prison" in there, which your Facebook-ranting right-wing uncle will surely love.

And dig this Palin-esque ending:
Luckily, Hillary's follow-up speech today was a major breath of optimistic and policy-rich fresh air. We'll have that full speech shortly!

Clinton Rising: Last week, Hillary led by 3.8 in the RCP polling averages and I guessed that she would lead by 8-10 points by next week. Well, as you can see we're just about halfway there and it would be even higher were it not for a crummy Gravis poll showing her up by only 2!

That's a nice month-long trend, eh? Let's keep it going!

Sanders Finally Concedes...That Hillary Probably Won: Breaking news...
"It doesn't appear that I'm going to be the nominee, so I'm not going to be determining the scope of the convention." -Bernie Sanders

Thanks, Bernie! Hopefully this is a transition toward an actual endorsement.

One thing, though: Other than being mad about the result in New York, I'm still trying to figure out why he's still so hung up on the idea of closed primaries being bad. All it means is that registered Democrats get to choose the Democratic nominee without input from Republicans and Independents...which definitely sounds fair to me. Should we try to make it easier and more inviting for voters to actually become Democrats? Sure! But this just seems like an odd battle to keep fighting over with Trump looming. Besides, Bernie lost big in open primary states like Texas as well, so I'm not sure that it would have helped him that much anyway.

UPDATE: Bernie is giving another "where we go from here" speech tomorrow.

I'm On the Air (Again): This morning I called in for the second time to "Mid Mornings With Hannah" on West Virginia's Talk Radio WRNR to talk about the state of the race. We had a great discussion about lots of things, but Al Franken fans in particular should pay close attention... because I kept bringing him up!


  1. me too, if there are same day registrations then anyone can register as a Democrat the same day they vote.

    If they were registered with no party affiliation, then they can register as Democrats the same day. If they were registered to a different party, then they may have to decide to change in advance of voting, whatever the state party rules that govern that.

    California Democrats allow anyone without party registration to request a Democratic primary ballot the same day they vote, and that's more than fair. I personally know two Republicans who knew Donald had won and had wished to vote for Bernie, just to give Hillary a bad time, and I am glad they were not allowed. Their race was over by then.

    Also, super's are important, partly because voters get to find out who is most wanted by their fellow Democrats, whether or not we agree, we find out.

    Obama started out with a sizable number of super-delegates, not as many as Hillary, but we then found out he had real backing, and since he wasn't well known we could see that he was considered capable by his peers.

    Also, when it's close the super's can make it not close anymore.

    Hillary would have deferred to the one with the most delegates anyway, but clearly if it were closer Bernie wouldn't have, he hasn't yet and it's far from close, and that could undermine our GE candidate.

    But the supers did switch to him, and made the margin much wider, and so showed her backers (I backed her in '08 too) that it really was over. And it's the part that disallows the possible prejudice, backing an African American, backing a woman, was before the voters weighed in, and so corrected to some degree for possible majority prejudices against minorities and women.

    We need the super's and we need the closed primaries, and we need same day registration and a new voting rights act, with national registration for the president/vice president.

    I can't wait to see your piece on the speech she just gave, it was wonderful, now I want to read it, hurry?

  2. Hillary's speech in Raleigh today was very, very, good. She was in the zone. And it was a progressive speech to boot. She was energized, clearly - unlike Donald who actually seemed low energy to me. "Old and tired"? That wasn't Hillary today - it was Donald! You know, without Donald being "Donald", he seemed out of his element today. So I guess his family wants him to be inauthentic. As for Bernie, I really don't know what's up with him but it's a little strange, to say the least. He really should just do the right thing and get behind Hillary. I really started off liking him and I still think he's right on many things but he seems kind of hypocritical to me for wanting to reform a party that he's really not a part of to begin with. I don't think he realizes there are many progressives who actually support Hillary - people like me.

    1. he at least toned it down. I think he has a money goal, that when he gets enough to pay back the illegal donations he'll bow out. he's an old guy, it's harder for him to be in debt, he hasn't a new election in the future, and asking for donations to retire your debt isn't as compelling. Now that he's toned it down I feel bad for him.

      her speech was wow, it's nothing new, it is her real policies, but all together and said great,

  3. I knew a guy who was mixed up in a relationship with a girl who didn't really like him; she was trying to take advantage of him. He's a nice guy, but his ego was so inflated that he just turned into a jerk for a couple months. Everybody around him knew what was going on and we were all patient. One day he came into work and was sad, but he was himself again. She had tried to swindle him, and he had figured out what was going on. When I saw the latest clip of Bernie, that's what I thought of. He's pulled himself away from a fantasy that he desperately wanted to believe in. I'm going to give him a fresh start and a clean slate. Welcome back, Bernie!

  4. Concerning the RCP average; it actually peaked out at six for one day. I don't think it will go much beyond that, (though of course I'm hoping!) There are always a few biased or outlier polls that will pull the average down. What really makes me happy is when every single poll is in our favor.