Tuesday, June 28, 2016

State of the Race: 133 Days To Go


Clinton Keeps Strengthening Lead Nationally: Hillary now leads Donald by almost 7 points in the average of national polls at both RCP and HuffPost. However, included in this are polls by Reuters/Ipsos and ABC News/Washington Post (rated A- and A+ respectively by 538) which show her at +13 and +12. This makes me wonder if the overall average might be underestimating her actual lead a bit.

Whatever the case, Hillary is in the driver's seat with less than a month to go until the start of the conventions. And you gotta love a chart like this from a top-notch pollster:


Clinton Has the Edge in Swing States: PPP's new swing state polls are out, and along with lots of interesting numbers regarding senate races and Merrick Garland, the numbers for Hillary are looking pretty good:


Of course, Arizona isn't traditionally considered a "swing state" though Clinton is definitely threatening to make it one this year. I wish the numbers looked better there, but I'm not complaining because the rest of this looks fine. And they may keep shifting in Hillary's favor if this amazing chart is any indication:
Seriously...I've never seen anything like this before. We're in uncharted general election territory.

Bernie Fades Further Into Irrelevancy: I know, I know...I recently said that I'd leave Bernie alone. But he just keeps disappointing me, the party and most of all himself with this very slow is-he-or-isn't-he conceding business. Rough headlines like "Bernie Sanders just gave an amazingly condescending interview about Hillary Clinton" and "Bernie Blew It" aren't helping him one bit, and meanwhile, Democrats are simply moving on without him:
In the most recent poll from ABC News and the Washington Post, Clinton leads Trump 51 percent to 39 percent, expanding her previous lead by 5 points, as Trump has seen a complete collapse in his support. And what’s driving the move toward Clinton? Democrats and independents who supported Bernie Sanders. In May, 20 percent of Sanders supporters said they would back Trump over Clinton in the general election. In June, that number is down to 8 percent. Overall, 81 percent of Sanders backers have rallied to Clinton, surpassing the 74 percent of Clinton supporters in 2008 who fell in behind Barack Obama. By any measure, the Democratic Party is unified.
It didn't have to be this way, but thanks to yesterday's tremendous Clinton/Warren rally, it's become even more clear that Sanders waited too long and much of his leverage is already gone. He can still give a hell of a speech at the convention and come out of this looking pretty good in the end, but it's long past time for him to actually help us win the presidency and both houses of Congress this year.

Libertarian Town Hall: In case you'd like to keep track of these guys, here's a recap of their recent CNN town hall. They had some surprisingly nice words for Barack and Hillary, for what it's worth:



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