Wednesday, June 29, 2016

New Poll Shows Clinton Destroying Trump in Battleground States


Need a mid-week confidence boost? Check this out via CNN:
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump across the board in a new poll of battleground states.

According to Ballotpedia's battleground poll, Clinton leads Trump:


51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia


Her leads held at nearly the same margins when Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson was included in the poll. And Clinton led Trump 48% to 37% when all states were factored together. With Johnson included, Clinton led Trump 44% to 34%, with Johnson at 13%.
One cool thing is that the double-digit leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida alone mean that Hillary will be the next president. That she leads in all these states points to an upcoming massive landslide.

Too good to be true? Not according to the statisticians over at 538 and Benchmark:
One unexpected result here is that Hillary leads by a higher margin in North Carolina than Virginia. But the Clinton camp must feel pretty decent about North Carolina because... It should also be noted that our old nemesis Quinnipiac has released a national poll today that was predictably dire for Hillary, while still showing her leading by 2. And check out this absolute doozy of a press release headline:

"Hate Winning, As Clinton-Trump Race Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Neither Candidate Would Be Good President, Voters Say"

Yikes! 

The former and latter results really shouldn't be able to exist in the same dimension. If the Quinnipiac national poll is accurate, it would be touch-and-go in the battlegrounds with Clinton probably behind in a few of them. If the Ballotpedia battleground numbers are correct, Hillary would probably be in the lead by double digits nationally. Of course, all these polls do exist in the same dimension and...sigh...I guess it makes sense to average them all together.

Once again for the people in the back: We have a big fight ahead of us and shouldn't get complacent. But for today? With a relaxing three-day weekend looming and a disastrous Republican National Convention right around the corner, let's go ahead and feel good about these outrageously great battleground numbers while remaining confident that the Clinton campaign is taking nothing for granted.

3 comments:

  1. I watched Ford on MSNBC yesterday on TPP, I like Ford, but he should have said that Hillary opposes TPP because it isn’t the gold standard anymore, she hadn’t seen it for a few years, it does not have the companion legislation that guarantees training in jobs that can’t be outsourced anymore, and does not provide funds to rebuild America’s electrical grid, or expand mass transit services to take people in their old communities to where the jobs are, fast, cheap and green, and does not provide funds for investment in communities left behind by the outsourcing of jobs.

    She’s for trade deals that guarantee more jobs, not fewer ones, better jobs, not worse ones.

    And she’s for trade deals that require income sharing with workers from the pacific to get better export deals. She wants that back in. she wants rewards for good behavior, and penalties for bad behavior, and no penalties but no rewards for neutral behavior.

    In general her surrogates are being boring, rather than repeat talking points that everyone knows, I think they ought to tell some stories about Hillary, about someone who was helped by Hillary, little personal stories, and to not repeat them, just once, there must be many hundreds, to tweet them afterwards to get them into the blogs, feed the blogs some sweet stories.

    A lot of what she's done over the years was never public information, and it would be nice to hear something interesting about her that I don't already know.

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  2. Please remember folks, the only stats that count are Electoral College results. Popular vote doesn't cut it. Just ask Al Gore. And for those of you thinking a Third candidate. Just remember, of no one gets 50% of Electoral college the whole thing goes to the house as populated now, to elect the next president.

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    1. that sounds alarmist, I don't fear that outcome. Already 90% of Bernie's supporters are for her, and Warren is amazing, she is doing the same thing for Hillary that Hillary did for Barack. Those who vote third party will be against Trump, not against Hillary.

      And she's just getting started in that she's just getting listened to, regarding her proposed policies, which are smart and practical as well as upbeat and inspirational.

      What you have to know is that Hillary wants no one left behind, she does not favor an economy that writes off anyone as unnecessary, and to date we've always had that kind of economy, so what she wants is really transformational change, and it's a girl thing, for her a Methodist thing, but one she's managed to 'evidence' in that it's also good for the overall economy, leaving no one out, treasuring each and every person, no matter their disadvantages, or their handicaps, whatever their minority status.

      Seriously, this is going to be great, we have never had a world leader who prioritizes what she does. Barack maybe would have, but he came in with a huge mess and he's leaving Hillary with just a mess.

      and she's prepared for this, she doesn't have to learn on the job, she knows what needs to be done to remove barriers, and they aren't necessarily what you'd think. They are things like affordable green transportation from historically neglected communities to where the jobs are, like building inner city community gardens connected by inner-city hiking trails, she sees squalor as a barrier. So with her retired tradespeople will get some economic advantage by holding small appliance repair workshops, and training in patching drywall, repairing toilets and sinks and painting. She'll want trees planted and park benches, and that great LED lighting that is now available so that night is like day, only softer and sweeter.

      just you wait

      (and, did anyone else notice, Donald stopped wearing his hat after Warren mocked him, he can feel shame, who'd of thunk it.)

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