Need a mid-week confidence boost? Check this out via CNN:
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump across the board in a new poll of battleground states.One cool thing is that the double-digit leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida alone mean that Hillary will be the next president. That she leads in all these states points to an upcoming massive landslide.
According to Ballotpedia's battleground poll, Clinton leads Trump:
51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia
Her leads held at nearly the same margins when Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson was included in the poll. And Clinton led Trump 48% to 37% when all states were factored together. With Johnson included, Clinton led Trump 44% to 34%, with Johnson at 13%.
Too good to be true? Not according to the statisticians over at 538 and Benchmark:
Those aren't even outliers!— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 29, 2016
In a 600-person poll, the margin of error, if Clinton's really up 7%, runs from Clinton +15% to Trump +1%.
I guess my favorite part of the Ballotpedia thing is their "overall" result has Clinton +11 over Trump. Not too different from the ABC poll.— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 29, 2016
When the numbers were different, folks usually look for a reason to dismiss the numbers. I see nothing wrong in the methodology per se (2/?)— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 29, 2016
One unexpected result here is that Hillary leads by a higher margin in North Carolina than Virginia. But the Clinton camp must feel pretty decent about North Carolina because...The Ballotpedia poll is the bombshell of the day - that said, the methodology looks VERY good. Traditional polling + Cell phones.— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) June 29, 2016
It should also be noted that our old nemesis Quinnipiac has released a national poll today that was predictably dire for Hillary, while still showing her leading by 2. And check out this absolute doozy of a press release headline:President Obama to make his first campaign appearance alongside @HillaryClinton next Tuesday, July 5th in Charlotte, NC— Brian Fallon (@brianefallon) June 29, 2016
"Hate Winning, As Clinton-Trump Race Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Neither Candidate Would Be Good President, Voters Say"
The former and latter results really shouldn't be able to exist in the same dimension. If the Quinnipiac national poll is accurate, it would be touch-and-go in the battlegrounds with Clinton probably behind in a few of them. If the Ballotpedia battleground numbers are correct, Hillary would probably be in the lead by double digits nationally. Of course, all these polls do exist in the same dimension and...sigh...I guess it makes sense to average them all together.
Once again for the people in the back: We have a big fight ahead of us and shouldn't get complacent. But for today? With a relaxing three-day weekend looming and a disastrous Republican National Convention right around the corner, let's go ahead and feel good about these outrageously great battleground numbers while remaining confident that the Clinton campaign is taking nothing for granted.