Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Nate Silver's 2016 Election Forecast Site is a Thing of Beauty and Wonder

As a political nerd who follows polls very closely, I thought I'd be excited when FiveThirtyEight's 2016 general election forecast finally arrived. But now that it's here, I've blown past being merely "excited" and am well into "slack-jawed wonder" and "completely stoked" territory. Seriously, Nate Silver's revamped site is truly cool and fascinating from top to bottom, and I'm pretty sure I'll be stopping by there just about every day.

And how about the opening odds on this lovely Obama-esque map?

You can also dive deep into each state, and here are a few interesting things I noticed today:

-Clinton is now projected to win Arizona by one point (45.5%-44.4%).
-At this moment, Clinton has a better chance of winning Texas (28.5%) than Trump has of winning Florida (26.2%). Wow!
-Clinton's opening odds in key swing states Pennsylvania (81.3%), Virginia (78.6%) and Ohio (70.8%) are looking pretty darn great four months out.

And if anything, the individual electoral vote map is even more lovely:

That's a whole lotta blue, huh?

Okay, enough from me...just go there yourself and have a blast until November 8th: FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast


  1. I used to blog kind of with him, at Kos, can't remember his name, something like poblamo? He was for Obama and I was for Clinton, and now he's famous, and is calling it for Clinton, cool or what?

    1. poblano!

      And I think I remember interacting with him a bit too. He's an inspiration!

  2. Revenge of the nerds; he's great! That guy is a quintessential nerd.

  3. Encouraging. Polls mean more after the conventions.
    Keep canvassing!