Thursday, June 30, 2016

Iowa Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by 14

Whoa...are independents flocking to Hillary in the face of a potential Donald disaster? They apparently are in a new Loras College poll of Iowa, where Clinton has a surprisingly strong double-digit lead:

Only one point is shaved off her lead with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein thrown into the mix.

This poll was conducted with live interviewers calling landlines (55%) and cells (45%) June 24-28. Also:
The statewide sample was balanced for standard demographic variables such as age and gender, with party composition to approximate 2012 presidential electorate in Iowa.
This result must be considered an outlier (for now) but there are tons of internals in the pdf and my initial impression is that the poll looks pretty solid.

Clinton is already favored in Iowa according to 538, but this by far is the biggest lead she's had there all year. If it's anywhere close to accurate, Trump truly is in deep, deep trouble in this state and across the map. And President Obama hasn't even hit the campaign trail yet!

The poll also shows Republican Chuck Grassley leading Democrat Patty Judge by only one point in the senate race, so take that for what it's worth as well.

Did someone say "blue wave"? To be continued...