Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Hillary Breaks Away From Bernie as the Democratic Race Concludes

With less than one week before Hillary Clinton becomes the presumptive Democratic nominee, let's take one last look at the overall polling picture for this alternatively exhausting and exhilarating yearlong journey. 

The graph above, via RCP, shows the national polling averages between Clinton and Sanders since February 1st...the date of the Iowa caucuses. Bernie's most dramatic spike occurred in the days following his big win in New Hampshire on February 9th. After that, the polls leveled off for almost two months until they were just about tied following a string of big Sanders wins in mostly smaller states with caucuses. However, since he was already so far behind in the delegate math because of Clinton's March landslides, getting close wasn't going to cut it. And you wouldn't know it from the horserace-obsessed media, but Hillary has been steadily breaking away since her big win in New York and now has a sizable lead in time for the final contests.

Hell, even "Hillary doom!" masters Quinnipiac have her leading Bernie by 14 in their new poll!

A quick glance at the above chart makes perfectly clear who really has the momentum in these final days...and it makes me wonder if California will really be all that close in the end.

UPDATE: Then again, regarding California...

1 comment:

  1. Mo thinks Cal will swing heavily with Clinton.