Tuesday, June 14, 2016

BOOM: Clinton Leads Trump by 12 Points in Bloomberg Poll!

(photo by Scott Hopkins)
Here we go!

In the first major national poll conducted entirely after Clinton's clinch of the Democratic nomination and Obama/Biden/Warren endorsements, Hillary leads Donald Trump by 12 points:
Democrat Hillary Clinton has opened up a double-digit lead nationally over Republican Donald Trump, whose negatives remain unusually high for a presidential candidate amid early indications that the Orlando terrorist attack has had little direct impact on the 2016 race.
A new Bloomberg Politics national poll shows Clinton leading Trump 49 percent to 37 percent among likely voters in November's election, with 55 percent of those polled saying they could never vote for the real-estate developer and TV personality.
Just yesterday, I predicted that the poll averages would have Hillary with an 8-10 point lead within the next couple of weeks. This poll makes me think that I might have been too conservative with the margin and/or timeline, but we shall see.

It looks even better in chart form:

Also note the almost double-digit result for the Libertarian candidate, which may keep rising and keep hurting Trump more and more in the coming months as the GOP disaster keeps unfolding.

Details like these look especially rough for Donald:
The former secretary of state is far from universally loved, but the share of likely voters who say they could never vote for her—43 percent—is much lower than Trump's 55 percent.
Other troubling findings for Trump in poll include how 63 percent of women say they could never vote for him. “If you can never get the vote of two in three women, who are a majority of voters, that is something that has to change for Trump to emerge victorious,” Selzer said.
Hang in there, everybody. As long as we have her back, she's going to win this thing!


  1. she and Barack are double teaming, they work well together, they are very similar people. Both speak in complete sentences too.

    Donald's other primary candidates agreed with too much of what Donald said, he just said it slightly more tacky, plus they aren't as smart as Barack and Hillary and Elizabeth (but to be fair, the Democrats are now rich in smarts, add Eric Holder, add my local hero Barbara Lee, and don't stop there, there is Bill Clinton who with HIllary started the hiring and promoting smarts).

    that was before Orlando, and you'd have to be seriously slow to think Donald's ideas would have stopped a man on the watch list allowed to purchase an assault weapon designed to sneak it into a crime scene and kill the most possible.

    Now even Republicans are coming out for the assault weapon ban, she and Barack led on that. (It was supposedly a risk for her to campaign on gun control, and it didn't matter to her if it were, it was that important, but turns out ...)

    Many are now working together to defeat Donald and execute the 50-state strategy. Warren is in front on goading and baiting while reminding everyone he is not on the side of regular people. And treed stupid/narcissist Trump is braying and blindly swiping at Warren and Obama as much as Clinton, he's chosen to run against all three of them and a lot in his own party too.

    it's very beautiful and awful to witness.

    by the by, to brag on myself (anna shane, phd, lacan.org) I predicted that Bernie would not drop out and would make sure to demand what he can't possibly get to 'justify' himself, and that's proven true, and I've said his motive is money, which hasn't yet been proven true, he's deeply into campaign debt because of his banking illegal contributions and spending them with his delusion that endless cash would keep coming his way at least until the California primary and it didn't, and he'd be able to roll some of it to the general and he can't, he can't afford to run 3rd party either, and he has to pay for his own 300K trip to Rome and he has to source that 10M he got in the beginning and pay it back, that was probably the seed money he used for the fund-raising apparatus.

    And if he dropped out he'd have to stop asking for primary donations, he can ask for retire the debt donations but as Hillary knows from '08, in that territory it trickles in.

    I know because I kept donating, not a lot, enough to show I cared and that I appreciated her staying in until it was really over and then for her campaigning for Obama. I would have given lots if I were rich, that was worthy of more than money.

    So anyone want free predictions based on sound social science (you can predict what someone will do by what they have done, and what they accuse is what they are themselves tempted by and guilty of) ok, now anyone can do it.