Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Watch Out! Hillary Might Just Win Georgia and Arizona This Fall

Bob Andres/AJC
A Clinton turned both Georgia ('92) and Arizona ('96) into blue states before, and now another Clinton is threatening to do it again.

In Georgia, three recent polls have Hillary Clinton within the margin of error behind Donald Trump:
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are locked in a statistical tie in Georgia, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll that laid bare the deep divide over the presidential race.

Trump’s 4-point lead over Clinton — he’s at 45 percent — is within the poll’s margin of error
, meaning neither can confidently claim a state that’s voted for the GOP nominee since 1996. ... 
The poll gives new heft to claims by Georgia Democrats that they can turn the Peach State blue, or at least a shade of purple, for the first time since Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory.
A second Georgia poll this week also shows Clinton (41%) well within striking distance of Trump (44%), while still another poll from two weeks ago had her only trailing by one point.

But the map might just expand even further for the Democrats this November:
The Presidential election is pretty competitive in Arizona at this point. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton just 40-38, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. There's a significant 'Never Trump' contingent among Arizona Republicans. While Clinton gets 80% of the Democratic vote, Trump is only getting 68% of the GOP vote at this stage. That number tracks with our finding that just 65% of Republicans say they're comfortable with Trump as their nominee to 22% who say they aren't. When you narrow the field to just Clinton and Trump though, Trump's lead goes up to 45/41 because his share of the GOP vote increases to 77%. 15% of Republicans are undecided compared to 8% of Democrats, so if the party really unites around Trump eventually he'll get close to being up by the kind of margins Republicans are accustomed to in the state but for now it's tight.
This tweet from the pollster makes an important point about how the continuing battle with Sanders is hurting Clinton in general election polls right now:
Once Hillary officially crosses the nomination finish line, she will be able to truly begin the process of party unification with the help of the White House, Elizabeth Warren, and (hopefully, eventually) Bernie himself. And her support should truly solidify after this summer's convention.

Right now, though, I suspect we're near the low-water mark in terms of Clinton's numbers versus Trump. Even so, she's still competitive in two reliably red states...and Republicans everywhere should be absolutely terrified.

4 comments:

  1. yes, georgia is close to blue, closer than it seems, and Hillary could speed it up.

    by the way, I noticed that some previous Bernie supporters feel tricked and wish they hadn't donated. The law has a remedy, they can just to write the campaign and ask for a refund and cc the refund request to the FEC. pass the word, if it costs him in money, maybe he'll behave. He thinks money drives everything, good idea to test his theory on him?

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    1. Hey, if my candidate lied to me about still being able to win and I gave him money as a result...I'd certainly want my money back!

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  2. and you would be legally entitled to a refund, no questions asked.

    I am sure glad I support Hillary, never one regret. Weird BJ over at orange is claiming Hillary's supporters were the same in '08, sadly it was Obama's supporters at Orange and many of the same names who were relentlessly sexist and nasty, but never Obama, he didn't do it, he didn't offer aid or comfort either. that's special for burn-the-house-down-if-I-can't-be-your-leader.

    the only refreshing part is the media can't pretend he's mr. honest anymore.

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  3. here is what is funny awful, sanders is paranoid-crazy-conspiracy-blaming Debbie, Debbie is drawing his nasty fire, and she's been smeared by him so long she's had it, she isn't pretending he means well, he lost her good regard. And Elizabeth is taking on Donald, picking on him and giving him room to be indiscreet.

    I like Debbie, I don't know that I agree with her Florida plan about interest rates, I don't know what she's trading, i'd take direction from Krugman, but she does not deserve the sexist smears from those boys. she's a woman with power and so she's a target for the 'trump-types.'

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