Monday, May 2, 2016

State of the Race: 190 Days To Go

(Note: This is a brand-new series at Hillary HQ designed to catch everyone up with the general state of the 2016 race though a combination of news and analysis at the beginning of every week. And we'll also be counting down the days until there is just one day to go. Enjoy! -Scott)

In the inaugural edition of State of the Race, we can see that things are looking pretty good in Clintonland on both the primary and general election fronts.

Next stop, Indiana: After Clinton romps in big states like New York and Pennsylvania that essentially secured her the nomination, this week's contest can't help but feel far less consequential to the final outcome. (Sorry, are important, it's just a matter of timing!) The only way Indiana might very slightly change the game is if Bernie manages to somehow pull out not just a win but a BIG win there. It still wouldn't get him the nomination...or anywhere close...but it might make the end of this nomination fight a little more contentious than it already is. Conversely, if the momentum from her recent wins gives Hillary an unexpectedly large victory (like we saw in neighboring Ohio), maybe it'll speed this whole endgame up a bit.

Polls in the state have consistently shown a Hillary lead of varying degrees, but Benchmark Politics' guess seems to me about as good as they come:
And according to FiveThirtyEight:

Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance of winning the Indiana primary.

"Contested Contest": Hmm. Isn't every political contest a "contested contest" conducted by "campaigning campaigners" in search of "voting voters"?
In a news conference from Washington, D.C., on Sunday, the Vermont senator urged superdelegates from states where he has won the majority of the vote to reconsider their support.

"It is virtually impossible for Secretary Clinton to reach the majority of convention delegates by June 14 with pledged delegates alone," he said.

"She will need superdelegates to take her over the top. The convention will be a contested contest," he said.
Basically, Bernie is pressuring superdelegates in states where he won big to support him. But that's not how it works, and it's not going to work. Notice he didn't suggest that all superdelegates should simply vote the way their state voted...he only wants them to do so in states where he won big. And I think I know why: Even though "superdelegates should vote with their states" seems like a halfway fair go-nowhere concept, he'd be telling Massachusetts superdelegate Elizabeth Warren that she should endorse Hillary Clinton. And he can't have that.

But all this meaningless bargaining is a waste of everyone's time and energy anyway...because even if the supers were forced to vote with their state's winners, it wouldn't change the final result:

Clinton Cash: For the first time since the beginning of the year, Clinton has outraised Sanders for the month of April, and she currently has $30 million cash on hand. Meanwhile, Bernie has had to fire hundreds of staffers because his cash on hand is likely minimal (or even in the red?). On top of that, Hillary raised almost $10 million for the Democratic Party while Bernie again raised nothing for them.

Bottom line, Clinton is very well-positioned financially until the convention while Sanders is slouching to the finish line and complaining every step of the way.
Wow, Donald Trump is really gonna be the Republican nominee: This is unreal. It's actually going to happen. GOP voters are actually going through with this. I can't truly believe our luck, which continues here...
...will be locked in here...
...and ends here:

Madam President

1 comment:

  1. he's our 50-state strategy and he continues to 'out' the other Republicans by taking their positions to logical conclusions. Even the stuff about Hillary is what they say on truth serum.