Monday, May 9, 2016

State of the Race: 183 Days To Go

Trump Shambles: Cruz and Kasich are gone. A series of gaffes involving everything from the national debt to taco bowls shows no sign of slowing down. The national and state polls keep pointing to total disaster for the GOP (see above for just one example). The party is so bitterly divided that even the Speaker of the House might just bail as convention co-chairman. And Trump has now taken to repeatedly and proudly calling himself the "King of Debt" who, to be clear, "loves debt".

Looking great, Donald! Don't mind us. Just keep up the awesome work of losing this election before Hillary even gets a chance to win it!

The Democratic Slog Continues: Sanders gained a few delegates with an Indiana victory on Tuesday while Clinton gained a few with a win in Guam on Saturday. So not only was the week a rough wash, but the Trump fiasco pretty much sucked all the air out of the Democratic room anyway.

West Virginia will likely be a Sanders win tomorrow. But it won't really matter, because here's what the overall delegate race currently looks like:

We're getting really close to the finish line here.

According to my rough calculations, Clinton should officially secure the nomination early on the evening of June 7th when the polls close in New Jersey. If 50+ additional superdelegates decide to throw their support to her before then, it could be sooner. And if Sanders does much better than expected in the next few contests, we might have to wait until the polls close later that evening in California before she officially wins.

Whatever the case, June 7th will be a historic day in women's history as well as a kickass party.

Kaine, Castro or...?: We're already seeing a lot of Clinton running mate talk, and I'm in agreement with the conventional wisdom for the most part. Tim Kaine would pretty much lock up Virginia... which would pretty much lock up the White House as a result. He's the perfect tactical choice, as well as being unquestionably qualified for the top job. But Julian Castro is the clear "go big" inspirational pick that could help break this election, and possibly several future elections, wide open for the Democrats. The only question is if he's ready.

Beyond these two, Al Franken is definitely my favorite. Why? Because Vice President Al Franken, that's why.

Christie, Perry or...?: She's definitely interested!

Think about it, Donald.



  1. it's fine with me too, she could beat any of them, and she's winning our primary running no-smear uber high road/ethically, but I'll take an easy one, even if the history books claim he lost rather than she won, this one should be funner.

    1. Some people seem to think that Hillary "deserves" a better opponent to make her victory more "real". I don't care about that. I just want her to kick his ass by 10+ points, bring in a Dem congress with her, and have a transformative 8 years in office.

    2. I totally agree. I want her to crush Trump.

    3. Yes. We are on our way to history with a wonderfully prepared President.

    4. Yes. We are on our way to history with a wonderfully prepared President.

  2. Kaine, Castro, Franken - all great choices for v.p. - I would also add Amy Klobuchar to that list. She's impressie and I think would really complement Hillary very well.

  3. So just how much is Hillary paying her trolls these days?....

    1. I like Castro best, but there are really quite a number of great choices.

      By the by, she has many dedicated long-time volunteers, but she in alone among the last standing in that she has ethical standards, she doesn't encourage nasty toward anyone.

      Shame there aren't more like her.

      At this point no one cares about Sanders, he wants attention so he keeps smearing her, but it isn't working, she isn't listening. He can blather on, which is a good thing because he can hardly help himself, having been blathering his entire life.

  4. The news is all good, but state and Congressional races are going to be decisive. Imagine if Obama had had a Congress that would negotiate!