Tuesday, May 31, 2016

State of the Race: 161 Days To Go

In Just One Week, We'll Have a Nominee: Hard to believe, but this yearlong struggle is almost complete. On the evening of June 7th, Hillary Clinton will be the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.

As you can see, Clinton is about 70 delegates away from the finish line. The U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should net her around 35-45 delegates this weekend, leaving her just 30 or so delegates shy when the polls close in New Jersey.

It's also possible that she'll be even further along thanks to more superdelegate commitments in the next week. However, a word of caution: If she crosses the finish line before the 7th thanks to superdelegates, it would dampen voter turnout in the final states and probably not smell quite right. I hope the Clinton campaign realizes this and knows that crossing the finish line thanks to New Jersey voters is soon enough!

And In Just One Week, Trump's Numbers Will Start to Really Drop: There have been a lot of pieces lately that have been saying basically the same thing that I've been saying for a couple of weeks.

For instance, here's the great Paul Krugman with some wisdom:
Here’s what you should know, but may not be hearing clearly in the political reporting: Mrs. Clinton is clearly ahead, both in general election polls and in Electoral College projections based on state polls.

It’s true that her lead isn’t as big as it was before Mr. Trump clinched the G.O.P. nomination, largely because Republicans have consolidated around their presumptive nominee, while many Sanders supporters are still balking at saying that they’ll vote for her.

But that probably won’t last; many Clinton supporters said similar things about Barack Obama in 2008, but eventually rallied around the nominee. So unless Bernie Sanders refuses to concede and insinuates that the nomination was somehow stolen by the candidate who won more votes, Mrs. Clinton is a clear favorite to win the White House.
Also, even now with the Democratic race still undecided, Clinton still leads Trump by a couple of points in the HuffPost average. Hang in there, y'all.

That's the (Libertarian) Ticket?: This also happened last weekend, and because of the nominees involved, I think it's interesting:
Libertarians on Sunday selected a presidential ticket headed by former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who lit into presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump on immigration and a range of other issues.

At the party convention in Orlando, Florida, Johnson got his preferred running mate, former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, in a weekend gathering that drew sharp contrasts with the major party candidates -- Trump and Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee.

Johnson described the real estate mogul's immigration policies as "just racist," particularly the Republican's call to deport 11 million undocumented people currently in the country.
In terms of sheer qualifications, this libertarian ticket blows Donald Trump away and may end up getting the most votes they've ever gotten in a general election...without taking any from Hillary. And they could hurt him in all fifty states, especially in places like New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire. 

Then again, this also happened at the libertarian convention, so I really have no idea what to expect anymore but I wish them the best of luck:

I'm On the Air!: If you'd like to hear some of this analysis in my own voice (saying a few too many "you know"s in the process) check out this morning's interview with Hannah Geffert of "Mid Mornings With Hannah" on West Virginia's Talk Radio WRNR. This was my very first call-in interview and I'm scheduled to be back on the show late next month. How'd I do?

1 comment:

  1. Sanders has given Nadar a new life and he's still trying to spoil, once a great man. He was asked about the Libertarians and he made a case for liberals voting libertarian by mentioning what we agree on, and not the vast and important stuff we totally disagree on, like government services and regulations to protect the environment and public education and non-discrimination. I was like, OMG

    But Mr. Jerry Brown has shown his great intellect and new practicality. No more moonbeam, although I liked him then too, he's no fan of Sanders, at least Jerry had the excuse of walking the walk and being young. He made the care for Hillary that spoke to the Sander's bots and not to the rest of us who already get it and love her for it, he showed his Jesuit, a big shout out for no-more-moonbeam.