Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Hillary News & Views 5.11.16: West-by-God Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, and Biden Speaks

Clinton speaks to supporters in Louisville, KY, May 10, 2016

Guest post by rugbymom

It’s my turn again to host Hillary News & Views, following the good model of our mentor Lysis.
          Since it’s Wednesday, we have new results to report (or, as some of us think of it, “more delegates off the board”), this time in West Virginia. As of 7 am, with almost 97% of the vote in, the count (per The Guardian) is 51.4% Sanders, 36.0% Clinton, and 12% others. (“Others” includes O’Malley and Judd, the incarcerated protest guy who drew 40% against Obama in 2012. It is possible that Paul Farrell could pick up one delegate in CD3.) The delegate split is tentatively 18-11 (per The Green Papers), for a net loss of 7; the 538 targets were 17-12. The media narrative seems to run along these lines:

 Reports: Sanders wins W.Va. Democratic primary, but Clinton remains overwhelming leader in delegate race 
           For full discussion of last night’s West Virginia results, go to El Mito’s  #ImWithHer #EstamosConElla #TrumpNunca open threads. (Thanks, El Mito!) It was a strange night, even aside from the large “other” vote. The exit polls indicated that WV voters, even nominal Democrats, are quite a bit more conservative than most other Democrats, with a high percentage planning to vote for Trump in November. Many of those conservative voters, along with the very liberal ones, voted for Sanders, while the moderates voted for Clinton. One-third of those who voted in the Democratic primary were independent (unaffiliated), and they went heavily for Sanders, as in other states, while Clinton fared better among registered Democrats. Women split almost identically to men, not the pattern we’re used to seeing.
          Nebraska also voted yesterday (with a down-ballot primary), a non-binding primary that was purely a “beauty contest,” as the delegates were chosen at the March 5 caucuses. Clinton came out way ahead in the primary, about 58-42, the reverse of the caucuses:

Clinton, in purple, won Nebraska primary (up 58-42). Sanders, in green, won caucus, 58-42. (primary doesn't count)

Clinton wins 0 delegates in Nebraska tonight, but wins a talking point on caucuses perhaps not reflecting will of larger electorate.
For more on how this impacts the debate about the future of caucuses, see Omahan’s diary and Scan’s analysis at HillaryHQ.
          Hillary has been putting time and energy into Kentucky this week, perhaps signalling that her campaign sees it as a possible win on May 17. That’s consistent with Benchmark’s new forecast on Kentucky:

Kentucky early modeling: Clinton 52% - Sanders 48%. Also closed primary. Decent minority pop.
 (For those of you who have become Benchmark fans, as I have, they are now joining Blue Nation Review. Nate Silver, pay attention to those footsteps coming along beside you.)
          Former Kentucky Governor Beshear has endorsed Clinton:
In this time of division and derision, we need a calm, sensible and experienced hand leading this nation. Hillary Clinton is that leader, and I enthusiastically endorse her to be president of these United States. Having worked aggressively and in a collaborative fashion as Kentucky’s governor to improve life for our people, I know that she is committed to the same key issues - partnering with others to create jobs and expand access to affordable health care.
          She made several campaign stops in the state yesterday. (Bill Clinton also spoke Monday and Tuesday in Morehead, Lexington, and Louisville.) She first spoke at the Family Health Center in the Portland neighborhood of Louisville, highlighting her plan to make childcare more affordable:
Speaking to a crowd gathered at the Family Health Centers in Louisville, the Democratic candidate for president said no family should have to pay more than 10 percent of its income for child care. . . .
Clinton said she would provide more details of the child care plan later, but said it would include subsidies and tax relief to offset the costs to families. She said Tuesday that the high cost of child care is among the chief concerns of parents she has met during the campaign.
Clinton also said she supports paid family leave, raising the minimum wage at the national level and requiring consistent work schedules for parents, some of whom must work ever-changing schedules dictated  by demands of employers.
"I want us to be really focused on what we are going to do to make it easier for families to get ahead and stay ahead," Clinton said.
Clinton also spoke about Kentucky’s Kynect program (which Republican Gov. Matt Bevin is, of course, trying to end):
She praised Kentucky's embrace of the Affordable Care Act under former Gov. Steve Beshear, a Democrat, as an "absolutely world class job" that resulted in a highly-regarded health insurance exchange and expanded Medicaid program. . . .
"Kentucky did a really good job in getting people connected," Clinton said. "If it ain't broke, don't mess with it."
That line drew enthusiastic applause and cheers from the crowd that include two former Beshear officials,  Crit Luallen, former lieutenant governor, and Audrey Tayse Haynes, Beshear's secretary of Health and Family Services who oversaw the roll-out of the health law in Kentucky.
Clinton then held a large rally inside a pavilion at Louisville Slugger Field. (Full videohere.) Her speech, like others in recent days, focused almost entirely on her Republican opponent and their very different visions for how to make the economy work better for working families.
          The Clinton campaign has also committed $175,000 for ads in Kentucky this week. Here’s the first one, “New World”:
          Oregon also votes next Tuesday. A new poll — the first one, apparently — surprisingly showed Clinton leading Sanders, 48-33. The polling firm, DHM Research, has a B+ rating from The poll attracted considerable chatter (and skepticism) on Twitter and in last night’s comment threads, since most people have assumed that Sanders was heavily favored in the state. But Benchmark Politics teases with its preliminary too-close-to-call rating:

Clinton 50.5% - Sanders 49.5% in Oregon, early modeling. Closed primary, extremely old median age, mail in
           Finally, VP Joe Biden is “confident” about Hillary. Although careful not to officially endorse Clinton (which the White House has said they will not do until the primaries are over), Biden in an interview to be broadcast on Good Morning America this morning expressed his confidence that Hillary will be the nominee and will win in November. The interview was covered by both El Mito and First Amendment (the latter with video).
          Have a good day, do something for Hillary, and take good care.

(originally posted at Daily Kos)

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