Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Do Yourself a Favor and Ignore Quinnipiac's Lousy "Shock Polls"

Oh God...here we go again from Quinnipiac:
"Shock poll: Donald Trump “dead even” with Hillary Clinton in key swing states"
A new Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released Tuesday shows Clinton up by a single point in the key swing states of both Florida (43 percent to 42 percent) and Pennsylvania (43 percent to 42 percent), while Trump actually beats Clinton in Ohio by 43 percent to 39 percent.
“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, noting that “since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.”
“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida,” Brown wrote in a memo accompanying the poll results.
Total toss-up race! Trump is trumping McCain and Romney! Run for the hills, Hillz!

Let me put this bluntly, again: If you're looking for crazy swings that make no sense, results with a pretty reliable across-the-board anti-Clinton bias, press releases that are often laughably negative about the Democratic frontrunner, and kooky math that sometimes doesn't even seem to add up...Quinnipiac should be your #1 favorite go-to pollster.

FiveThirtyEight has also noticed their outlier history:
However, after dismantling Quinnipiac over and over again for much of 2015, I eventually decided that life is too short to pay much mind to their crappy polls. Our collective sanity will be much more secure going forward if we stick to the polling averages, such as this one from Pennsylvania:

...and also keeping in mind that there's no way that the new state polls from Quinnipiac and the new national poll from CNN/ORC could possibly exist in the same universe:

1 comment:

  1. but you can bet more than one creep will be touting those results, Bernie has more in common with Donald than unfounded narcissism.