Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Clinton Leads Sanders by 28 Points in New Jersey

If last night's result in Indiana is any indication, Sanders likely does have a few favorable states ahead of him before this thing is done. 

But winning a few upcoming contests by single digits (or a little more) just isn't going to cut it. Bernie needs to win big...massively, actually...in every upcoming contest in order to have a shot at flipping the superdelegates by coming out ahead in the pledged delegates.

And that's just not going to happen... not with Monmouth poll numbers like these out of New Jersey, the second-largest state left in the calendar:
Clinton has the support of 60% of likely Democratic voters in New Jersey while Sanders’s support stands at 32%. Clinton holds a lead among nearly every demographic group in the electorate, including voters age 50 and older (70% to 25%), voters under 50 (51% to 38%), black voters (64% to 24%), white voters (60% to 34%), and women (69% to 22%). The only group where Sanders is competitive is among Democratic men, earning 45% to 49% for Clinton.  
“Despite her loss in Indiana, it looks like Clinton is on target to corral the delegates she needs for the nomination. New Jersey is shaping up to make a significant contribution to her final total,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. 
At this rate, New Jersey might just be the state that officially pushes Clinton over the 50%+ total delegates mark on June 7th, officially securing her the nomination before California even gets through voting.

Which is fine...it just means that we'll have to start the party early that evening.

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